Nigeria imports most of the medicines it uses.

Estimates put it at around 70%, a surprising number for a country with a large population and an active pharmaceutical sector.

At first glance, it looks like a production problem. If there are factories, why aren’t they making enough?

But that’s only part of the story.

Local manufacturers do produce medicines, but mostly at the lower end, basic drugs that require simpler production processes. More complex, higher-value medicines are still largely imported .

So the issue isn’t just about whether Nigeria can produce medicines. It’s about what the system currently makes easier to do.

Now, Policy Is Trying to Change That

The government has recently moved to restrict the importation of several commonly used medicines, including paracetamol and aspirin.

The idea is straightforward: limit imports and create space for local manufacturers to meet demand.

This approach isn’t entirely new.

Back in 2005, Nigeria introduced a similar restriction on 17 basic medicines, including paracetamol and aspirin to support local production.

It had some effect, but it didn’t significantly push manufacturers into producing more advanced medicines.

That history matters, because it shows that restricting imports alone doesn’t automatically build capacity.

Why Local Production Has Stayed Limited

Producing complex medicines isn’t just about having factories as it requires time, investment, and technical capability.

Many Nigerian pharmaceutical companies operate with limited manufacturing capacity, and upgrading to more advanced production is costly and risky .

At the same time, importing finished medicines offers a more predictable business model.

So companies adapt accordingly.

One of the clearest signs of how the system works is that many companies both manufacture and import medicines.

For example:

• The antibiotic ciprofloxacin is produced locally by about 21 companies

• But it is also imported by at least 90 companies

A similar pattern exists with antimalarial drugs like artemether-lumefantrine, where imports far exceed local production .

In some cases, companies even produce and import the same medicine under different brand names.

This isn’t accidental, it reflects how the business environment is structured.

The Bigger Issue Isn’t Just Production

At its core, Nigeria’s reliance on imported medicines is not simply about lacking capacity.

Research shows it is also shaped by an incentive structure that makes importing more attractive than producing locally .

Over time, policies have not consistently supported the transition into more advanced pharmaceutical manufacturing.

As a result, companies settle into a hybrid model:

• produce simpler drugs locally

• import more complex ones

What This Means for Everyday Nigerians

This structure has real consequences.

Heavy dependence on imports can lead to:

• higher medicine costs

• vulnerability to global supply disruptions

• limited access to certain treatments

Across Africa more broadly, reliance on imported medicines has already been linked to higher costs and unstable supply chains.

So this isn’t just an industry issue, it directly affects healthcare access.

So Will the New Policy Work?

The recent import restrictions signal a clear intention to strengthen local production.

But whether they succeed depends on more than limiting imports.

Local manufacturers need:

• stronger capacity

• consistent policy support

• real incentives to scale into more complex production

Without that, restrictions may create pressure but not necessarily long-term transformation.

A Shift That Needs More Than One Move

Nigeria’s dependence on imported medicines developed over decades.

It reflects how policies, incentives, and market realities have shaped the industry.

Changing that pattern will likely take more than a single policy decision.

Restricting imports may shift the balance, but it does not, on its own, fix the deeper structure that keeps imports dominant.

And until that structure changes, the system may adjust but not fully transform.