Oil prices experienced a slight dip on Friday, a movement largely influenced by market anticipation of the upcoming OPEC+ meeting. Traders are closely monitoring the meeting, which is expected to address a potential increase in global oil production. This slight decline occurred amidst thin holiday trading due to the U.S. Independence Day holiday, though Brent crude and U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude both saw a slight uptick compared to the previous week's close.

The OPEC+ group, comprising eight key oil-producing countries, is likely to approve another oil output increase for August during their meeting scheduled for Saturday. This anticipated move, which could see an additional 411,000 barrels per day (bpd) for the fourth consecutive month, is part of their broader strategy to boost market share. Analysts, such as Tamas Varga from PVM, suggest that such an increase would necessitate a reassessment of oil balance estimates for the second half of the year, potentially leading to an accelerated swelling of global oil reserves.

Beyond the OPEC+ decisions, several other geopolitical and economic factors are influencing investor sentiment and oil prices. Profit-taking was observed on concerns that OPEC might increase production more than anticipated. Investors are in a 'wait-and-see' mode, also closely watching the implications of U.S. President Donald Trump's significant package of tax and spending cuts, which was set to be signed into law. This legislative development adds another layer of economic uncertainty to the market.

Crude prices also faced downward pressure from reports indicating a planned resumption of U.S. nuclear talks with Iran. A U.S. news website, Axios, reported that the United States intends to resume these discussions next week, while Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araqchi reaffirmed Tehran's commitment to the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. The prospect of these talks could potentially lead to changes in oil supply from Iran, further affecting market dynamics.

Moreover, uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariff policy has re-entered the spotlight as a 90-day pause on higher levies nears its end. European Union negotiators have yet to achieve a breakthrough in trade discussions with the Trump administration. Consequently, EU diplomats are reportedly seeking an extension of the current status quo to avoid potential tariff hikes, adding another layer of complexity to the global trade and economic landscape impacting commodity markets. Despite these various pressures, Barclays raised its Brent oil price forecast by $6 to $72 a barrel for 2025 and by $10 to $70 a barrel for 2026, citing an improved demand outlook.