Ethiopia Exodus: 50,600 Flee Nation in Q1 2026 Amid Economic Hardship

According to a new report by the International Organization for Migration (IOM), an estimated 50,600 people departed Ethiopia through the Eastern Route during the first quarter of 2026. This figure comes amidst a backdrop of increasing exploitation by smugglers and a shift by migrants towards more challenging alternative routes. While this number represents a decline from the 65,200 exits recorded during the same period in 2025—a decrease partly attributed to increased authorities' presence pushing migrants away from urban areas—migration along the broader Eastern Route still saw an eight percent year-on-year increase, reaching 152,700 movements. Notably, migration through Somalia nearly tripled to 18,600 movements, fueled by active smuggling and trafficking networks.

The IOM's findings highlight that Ethiopian nationals are a dominant group in this migratory flow, accounting for 91% of the 13,687 migrants who arrived in Yemen in July 2026. The primary drivers behind this movement remain deeply rooted in socio-economic factors. A significant 57 percent of migrants cited economic reasons for their journey, with 42 percent specifically seeking work. Broader issues like conflict, insecurity, limited access to protection, and worsening economic conditions in the Horn of Africa consistently push thousands towards Yemen and the Gulf region. These pressures are expected to keep migration along the Eastern Route high, exacerbated by food insecurity, household debt, and limited livelihood opportunities.

The journey itself is fraught with peril and exploitation. Migrants reported being forced onto "more challenging and hazardous" alternative routes to bypass authorities. The IOM documented widespread financial exploitation by smugglers, who often transport migrants through parts of Somalia before demanding payments from their families, guardians, or relatives under duress to ensure the migrants' safety. Such incidents are classified as "smuggling-related exploitation and extortion." Beyond financial demands, cases involving ransom, physical abuse, confiscation of documents, and labor exploitation were also reported among Ethiopian migrants in Bossaso. Many migrants also exhaust their resources mid-journey, leading to severe food shortages, with some stranded in Bossaso reportedly eating only once a day.

The Eastern Route also carries deadly risks. During the first quarter of 2026, the IOM recorded 92 deaths and disappearances, including 23 within Ethiopia. Drowning and vehicle accidents, often linked to hazardous transport conditions, were identified as leading causes. A tragic incident in January saw at least 22 migrants die and 65 others injured when a cargo truck overturned near Semera in the Afar Region. Another migrant was found dead near Dewele in March, showing signs of violence. IOM's Migration Response Centers in Ethiopia assisted 2,200 migrants during this period, with 95 percent reporting a lack of basic services, 24 percent held against their will, and 16 percent subjected to extortion.

Demographically, the Amhara and Tigray regions each accounted for 35 percent of recorded departures from Ethiopia, followed by Oromia at 22 percent. Men constituted the majority of migrants at 65 percent, while women accounted for 17 percent, boys 12 percent, and girls six percent. Concurrently, returns from Saudi Arabia to Ethiopia have significantly increased, more than doubling from 12,800 in Q1 2025 to 26,400 in Q1 2026. Tigray received the largest share of these returnees at 36 percent, followed by Amhara at 31 percent and Oromia at 29 percent, highlighting the circular nature of migration and the ongoing challenges faced by these populations.