The ongoing US-Israel conflict with Iran has escalated tensions in the critical Strait of Hormuz, prompting former US President Donald Trump to call upon the United Kingdom and other nations to deploy warships to ensure the waterway remains open. Trump, using his Truth Social platform, urged countries like China, France, Japan, South Korea, and the UK to contribute vessels, asserting that such a move was necessary to counter Iran's attempts to close the strait, which is vital for global energy trade.

The Strait of Hormuz, a narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman, serves as a crucial artery through which approximately one-fifth of the world’s oil, or about 20 million barrels daily, typically transits. Since the initial US and Israeli strikes on Iran a fortnight prior, numerous ships in the strait have reportedly come under attack, leading to its effective closure. This disruption has triggered a significant surge in global oil prices and exerted immense pressure on the international economy.

Despite claiming that "100% of Iran’s Military capability" had been destroyed, Trump acknowledged Iran's continued capacity to pose threats through drones, mines, or close-range missiles in the waterway. He vowed that the United States would bomb the shoreline and continuously target Iranian boats, promising to make the Strait of Hormuz "OPEN, SAFE, and FREE!" In response to these assertions, Iran's Ministry of Defence dismissed Trump's claims of military destruction as "fabricated lies." The UK, through a spokesperson, stated it was discussing a range of options with allies to ensure shipping security, a stance that followed earlier criticism from Trump directed at Prime Minister Keir Starmer for not joining the initial strikes that reportedly killed Iran's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Starmer defended his decision, emphasizing Britain's national interest.

Trump’s confidence in his foreign policy approach, particularly regarding Iran, appeared bolstered by his previous success in Venezuela, where the capture of Nicolás Maduro granted the US control over oil and mineral resources and allowed for the throttling of Cuba's energy supply. He expressed conviction that the joint US-Israel venture in Iran would yield similar results, downplaying the economic consequences of the war. Trump publicly stated that short-term oil price spikes, which he predicted would drop rapidly once the Iranian nuclear threat was neutralized, were a "very small price to pay for U.S.A., and World, Safety and Peace."

The US, in many respects, is better insulated against energy price spikes than other major advanced economies, thanks to a significant increase in domestic crude production and a growing reliance on natural gas. While Europe's markets "shuddered" over the Hormuz closure (which impacts 20% of global oil shipments) and Qatar's gas facility shutdowns, the S&P 500 index in the US remained near all-time highs. Oil now constitutes about 38% of US energy consumption, a decrease from 48% during the 1973 oil crisis, with natural gas's share rising from 30% to 36%.

However, despite this domestic resilience, Trump faces a formidable challenge from the opposition of the American public, as the war against Iran has been "deeply unpopular from the start." The economic ramifications are projected to undermine its popularity further. The global nature of oil markets means that prices are set internationally, regardless of origin, and retail gasoline prices have already climbed to over $3.50 a gallon, the highest since Trump took office. Government forecasts indicate that gasoline prices may not return to 2025 levels until late 2027, with diesel prices remaining elevated beyond next year. These increased costs are expected to be passed on to consumers by trucking companies, farmers (affecting food prices), retailers, and airlines, contributing to inflation and potentially hindering interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. Moreover, expensive gas is likely to negatively impact sales of popular SUVs, further eroding Trump's approval ratings.

Recognizing these risks, the Trump administration has been actively working to mitigate the rise in oil prices. Measures include a plan to insure tankers and provide escorts through the Strait of Hormuz, waiving sanctions against certain Russian oil exports, and exploring options to expand Venezuelan oil production to offset supply shortfalls. Nevertheless, reversing the largest jump in oil prices in over three decades will require more substantial interventions, primarily either an end to the war or a significant degradation of Iran's capabilities to threaten oil tankers.

Trump's public statements often contain a duality, simultaneously asserting that the war is "very complete, pretty much" and demanding "unconditional surrender" from Tehran. Yet, his advisors are likely aware that extensive aerial bombardment does not guarantee long-term victory, as thousands of armed Iranian Revolutionary Guards and Basij forces remain capable of resisting and supporting the regime. The options for Trump are challenging: he could scale back demands, claim an alternative victory, and withdraw forces, though this might appear unfavorable. Alternatively, he could deploy ground forces, an option not ruled out, or escalate bombing to include civilian targets once military infrastructure is exhausted. None of these approaches offer a quick resolution, implying that the economic pain from the war is likely to persist, and potentially teaching Trump that decapitating rivals is not a universally effective strategy.