The Orange Democratic Movement (ODM), a significant political party established two decades ago by the late Raila Odinga, appears to be on the brink of a split, evidenced by recent developments in Kilifi. This internal turmoil coincides with ODM Members of Parliament (MPs), led by Alego Usonga MP Samuel Atandi, announcing their endorsement on January 12, 2026, of a Central Management Committee resolution to form a pre-election coalition with the United Democratic Alliance (UDA).

Democracy for the Citizens Party (DCP) Nairobi patron Irungu Nyakera has publicly alleged that President William Ruto is actively working to undermine ODM's national influence, aiming to restrict its reach primarily to the Nyanza region. Speaking on Spice FM on Tuesday, January 13, Nyakera asserted that President Ruto's overarching objective is to establish UDA as Kenya's dominant political force by strategically weakening ODM beyond its traditional strongholds. Nyakera explicitly stated, "The biggest target for Ruto is building UDA and killing ODM, not completely, but turning it into a Nyanza-only party. The power ODM had outside Nyanza, he wants it clipped."

Nyakera further elaborated that the President's strategy includes encouraging prominent Coast leaders, such as Mining Cabinet Secretary Hassan Joho, to depart from ODM and establish a new political entity. This new party would then aim to supplant ODM's long-standing dominance in the Coast region. These claims align with recent warnings from Coast ODM leaders who have indicated a willingness to shift their political allegiance if Hassan Joho is not granted a top leadership position within the party before the 2027 general elections. Former Gender Cabinet Secretary Aisha Jumwa highlighted Joho's significant contributions to ODM, stating, "In 2017, the Coast region delivered more seats and votes to Raila Odinga and ODM, even more than Nyanza. Hassan Joho has invested a lot of time and resources in ODM. If ODM leadership is not given to Joho, we at the Coast will champion another political pathway and we will not be afraid. Joho has everything it takes to be a party leader." In response, Joho affirmed his readiness to lead the region and outlined a political path that includes supporting President Ruto for a second term, noting, "It must be understood that we are supporting President William Ruto for two terms because Baba left us in the broad-based government. After that, we will go for the presidency, but that ambition can only be achieved if we are united."

Nyakera contended that the dismantling of ODM is merely one component of Ruto and UDA's comprehensive political strategy. He accused the President of fostering presidential aspirations among individuals within his own camp to create confusion and fragmentation within the opposition. As examples, Nyakera cited former Deputy Chief of Staff Eliud Owalo, who declared his intention to run for president in 2027 before resigning from civil service, and drew parallels to former Public Service Cabinet Secretary Moses Kuria's prior presidential announcement before aligning with Ruto. Concluding his remarks, Nyakera also accused the government of resorting to violence to maintain control, warning that such actions could escalate political confrontations. "It seems the government wants to make violence a currency, and that means those of us in the opposition may be forced to use it as well. Nobody has a monopoly on violence. If the government uses goons, the opposition will also use goons, and in the end, it is Kenyans who will suffer," Nyakera cautioned.