Bitwise Raises Bitcoin’s 2036 Price Target to $1.6 Million, Citing Institutional Demand

Bitwise Asset Management has raised its base-case Bitcoin price target to $1,599,766 by 2036, up from its previous projection of $1.3 million, according to its 2027 Bitcoin Long-Term Capital Market Assumptions released on October 28, 2026.

The forecast implies a 34.3% compound annual growth rate, based on Bitcoin’s reference price of $83,557 on September 30, 2026, while the firm’s bear-case and bull-case scenarios stand at $130,686 and approximately $3.67 million, respectively.

Bitwise attributes its more optimistic outlook to three factors: growing institutional investment, Bitcoin’s limited supply, and rising government debt that could encourage demand for scarce stores of value. The firm estimates that institutions managing approximately $147 trillion in assets could allocate 1% to 5% of their portfolios to Bitcoin, potentially representing $1.5 trillion to $7.4 trillion in demand against an estimated $14 billion in annual new Bitcoin issuance.

The report also argues that Bitcoin’s market is maturing as institutional participation expands, although substantial price fluctuations remain likely. Bitcoin fell approximately 53.4% from its October 2025 peak of $126,080 to its June 2026 low of $58,717, a smaller decline than the 77%–86% drawdowns recorded in previous major market cycles.

Bitwise expects average volatility to decline to 27.8% over the next decade, while forecasting a stronger relationship between Bitcoin and traditional stores of value such as gold; however, analysts remain divided over whether the latest downturn signals a weakening of Bitcoin’s traditional four-year cycle or follows historical halving patterns.

The firm’s outlook also depends on continued institutional adoption and expanding demand, while Bitcoin’s correlation with gold could leave it exposed to shifts in investor appetite for both assets.

Bitwise has identified regulatory uncertainty, quantum computing, and advances in artificial intelligence-driven mathematics as risks to its long-term projections. The failure of the US Senate to advance the CLARITY Act on September 15, 2026, after it fell short of the votes required to proceed, highlighted the challenges of establishing a durable federal regulatory framework for digital assets, although regulatory agencies may continue developing rules under existing authority.

The firm also warned that future quantum-computing advances could threaten the cryptographic systems protecting Bitcoin wallets, potentially requiring network upgrades and the migration of funds to more secure addresses.

With Bitcoin trading around $80,500 in the market snapshot supplied for this report, Bitwise’s $1.6 million target remains a long-term model based on assumptions about adoption, market growth, and supply, not a guaranteed outcome or an indication of where the cryptocurrency will trade in the near term.