Bitcoin's price concluded last week at $115,390, having momentarily surpassed the $115,500 resistance level over the weekend before settling just beneath it by week's end. The preceding week showed a strong positive momentum, characterized by a significant green candle, indicating a bullish trend entering the current week.

Economic data played a pivotal role in shaping market sentiment. The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) released last Wednesday fell below expectations, fostering optimism among market bulls regarding an anticipated interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve. However, inflation data released the following morning presented a more nuanced picture, registering at 2.9% as expected, but marginally higher than the previous month's 2.7%. All eyes are now on the Federal Reserve's FOMC Meeting this Wednesday, where policymakers will deliberate on interest rates. The market broadly anticipates a 0.25% interest rate cut, with any deviation from this expectation potentially triggering a market correction.

For the current week, bitcoin faces immediate resistance at the $115,500 level, which it aims to close above. Further upward movement will encounter strong resistance at $118,000. While an intraweek push above $118,000 is possible, strong selling pressure is expected at this point, potentially causing the price to retreat below it by Sunday. Should bitcoin exhibit weakness or be rejected from the $118,000 level, short-term support is identified at $113,800. Below this, weekly support stands at $111,000, with a close beneath this level likely challenging the $107,000 low.

Examining the daily chart, a slightly bearish bias was observed as of Sunday's close, following a rejection from $116,700 last Friday. This bias could swiftly shift to bullish if Monday's U.S. stock market demonstrates a resumption of its upward trend. The Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD) indicator is attempting to hold above the zero line to re-establish it as support, signaling a potential return to bullish momentum. Concurrently, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is dipping but maintains a bullish posture, looking to the 13 Simple Moving Average (SMA) for support if selling pressure intensifies into Tuesday.

The critical event this week will be Chairman Powell's speech at 2:30 PM Eastern on Wednesday, following the 2:00 PM announcement of the Federal Reserve's rate decision. Any outcome other than a 0.25% rate cut is expected to induce significant market volatility, inevitably affecting bitcoin's price. The overall market mood remains bullish, spurred by two consecutive green weekly candles, with expectations for the $118,000 level to be tested this week.

Looking ahead to the next few weeks, sustaining momentum above $118,000 is crucial for bitcoin's continued ascent. If bitcoin successfully establishes $118,000 as a new support level, a push towards the $130,000s is anticipated. Assuming the Federal Reserve implements a rate cut this week, market attention will then shift to October for a potential additional interest rate reduction. Therefore, supportive market data and ongoing rate cuts are vital for fueling a bullish continuation towards new highs. Conversely, any significant bearish events or an unexpected decision by the Fed not to cut rates this Wednesday would likely send bitcoin's price down to retest established support levels.

To aid understanding, some key terminology includes: Bulls/Bullish refers to buyers or investors expecting price increases, while Bears/Bearish refers to sellers or investors expecting price decreases. A Support level is where the price is expected to hold, at least initially, becoming weaker with more touches. A Resistance level is the opposite, likely to reject the price initially, also weakening with multiple touches. SMA (Simple Moving Average) is an average price based on closing prices over a specified period. Oscillators are technical indicators that vary within a band, typically between oversold and overbought conditions (e.g., RSI and MACD). The MACD Oscillator indicates trend and momentum by subtracting the difference between two moving averages. The RSI Oscillator, moving between 0 and 100, measures the speed and change of price movements, with values over 70 indicating overbought conditions and below 30 indicating oversold conditions.