The price of Bitcoin is projected to see significant growth in the coming year, with Citi analysts forecasting a base-case target of $143,000 over the next 12 months. This optimistic outlook is primarily driven by continued adoption through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and an anticipated more accommodating U.S. regulatory environment, which is expected to draw substantial new capital into the market. While the base case is robust, Citi's bullish scenario envisions Bitcoin's price potentially soaring above $189,000. Conversely, a bearish scenario suggests a fall to around $78,500 if broader macroeconomic conditions deteriorate, according to MarketWatch reports. As of a recent Friday, Bitcoin was trading near $88,000, having seen a roughly 30% pullback from its late-October peak following a sharp wave of selling earlier in the year, although outflows from spot Bitcoin ETFs have recently moderated.

A critical assumption underlying Citi's forecasts, particularly for Bitcoin, is the sustained investor adoption, with projected inflows of $15 billion into ETFs expected to boost token prices. This perspective was highlighted in a note led by Alex Saunders, Citi’s head of global quantitative macro strategy. Further bolstering demand, Citi points to potential regulatory clarity in the United States. The U.S. Senate is actively negotiating its version of the House-passed Clarity Act, legislation designed to place Bitcoin under the oversight of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). Such clear regulatory frameworks are anticipated to encourage broader institutional participation in the cryptocurrency market.

The bearish outlook from Citi considers scenarios involving recessionary pressures and a diminished appetite for risk assets. The cryptocurrency market has already experienced such volatility, with Bitcoin falling to multi-month lows in November. This decline was attributed to concerns over high technology valuations and broader macro risks, resulting in Bitcoin shedding over $18,000 that month, marking its largest dollar decline since May 2021 amid heavy investor withdrawals.

Beyond forecasts, major financial institutions are increasingly embracing Bitcoin. Just two weeks prior, Bank of America advised its wealth management clients to allocate 1% to 4% of their portfolios to digital assets. This represented a significant shift, empowering over 15,000 advisors across Merrill, Bank of America Private Bank, and Merrill Edge to proactively recommend crypto to their clients. Similarly, PNC Bank recently launched direct spot Bitcoin trading for eligible Private Bank clients, enabling them to buy, hold, and sell Bitcoin natively through its digital banking platform, powered by Coinbase’s Crypto-as-a-Service infrastructure.

Despite the institutional adoption and bullish forecasts, Bitcoin’s recent price action underscores a market in consolidation, where positive macro catalysts have struggled to translate into sustained upside. After briefly testing $89,000 following cooler-than-expected U.S. inflation data, Bitcoin slid back towards the $84,000 range, extending a correction into its second month. This pattern of sharp, data-driven rallies followed by quick retracements is becoming familiar, as sellers consistently defend resistance levels below $90,000.

Macroeconomic signals present a mixed picture. November's Consumer Price Index (CPI) eased to 2.7% year-over-year, with core inflation at 2.6%, strengthening the argument for eventual Federal Reserve interest rate cuts in 2026. This data initially sparked an intraday rally. However, rising U.S. unemployment and uneven job growth complicate the economic outlook, reinforcing expectations for a cautious approach from the Fed, and markets appear hesitant to price in aggressive easing measures. A significant drag on the market remains U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs, which have transitioned from consistent inflows to net redemptions. This shift removes a crucial stabilizing bid that previously absorbed selling pressure, making it harder for price breakouts to sustain even in the face of positive news.

Technically, the Bitcoin price is currently range-bound. Resistance is firmly established just below $90,000, while support near $84,000 appears to be weakening. A decisive break below this support could initiate a move towards the $72,000–$68,000 zone, where analysts anticipate stronger demand. While extreme fear readings in the market might suggest potential undervaluation, the near-term momentum still favors sellers. At the time of writing, the Bitcoin price continues to hover around the $88,000 level.