Bank of America Corp. Chief Executive Officer Brian Moynihan has offered an optimistic outlook on future trade relations, projecting that the Trump administration may ease trade tensions next year. This perspective follows a turbulent 2025, when tariffs reportedly disrupted the U.S. economy. In an interview on CBS News’ Face the Nation, Moynihan stated that the bank now expects “de-escalation, not escalation” regarding trade policies.

According to Moynihan, the anticipated average tariff rate may hover around 15%. However, higher rates could be applied to countries unwilling to commit to U.S. purchases or reduce non-tariff barriers. He downplayed the effect of a shift from a 10% across-the-board tariff to 15% for a wide range of nations, suggesting it would not have a “huge impact.” This reinforces Bank of America’s belief that the trend toward easing trade restrictions is already underway.

The backdrop includes prior actions by the Trump administration. In April 2025, a 10% baseline tariff was announced for all exporters to the U.S., followed by additional tariffs in July projected to raise the average rate to 15.2% for major trading partners, had they been fully enforced. Bloomberg Economics estimated that the average U.S. tariff rate increased to 14% from 2% since President Trump’s return to the White House, highlighting the magnitude of trade uncertainty.

Moynihan noted specific regional considerations, emphasizing that China represents a “different question” within the broader trade dialogue. He also referenced the upcoming review of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) next year, which will impact North American trading partners. Despite these nuances, Moynihan expressed confidence that a “sort of the endpoint” for global trade uncertainties is emerging.

On the domestic front, the CEO acknowledged that elevated tariffs and trade-policy unpredictability negatively affected small businesses in the second quarter of 2025. However, he observed relief as some tariff rates eased. Moynihan further emphasized that for small businesses, concerns over labor availability now surpass tariffs as the primary challenge, citing ongoing uncertainties tied to certain immigration policies enacted under the Trump administration.