Zambia's By-Election Chaos: Parties Pull Out, Unopposed Victories, and Recount Battles Grip Nation

Zambian politics has once again underscored the fluid nature of loyalty when elections are at stake, a reality sharply highlighted by recent events surrounding the Mandevu parliamentary by-election. Adrian Banda's swift reintegration into the United Party for National Development (UPND) on October 2, followed just five days later by his adoption as the party's candidate for the by-election, has ignited considerable debate. This rapid ascent has left Christopher Shakafuswa, the incumbent Mandevu MP who previously carried the UPND flag, watching from the political sidelines, raising questions about betrayal versus pragmatic political strategy.

The decision to adopt Banda, a move that appears to prioritize electoral success over long-standing party loyalty, prompts an examination of its underlying rationale. To be fair to the UPND, Adrian Banda is not a newcomer to the political landscape of Mandevu. He had previously contested in the constituency and was a significant contender in the nullified August election, which necessitated a fresh poll. The UPND may have assessed the electoral data and concluded that Banda possesses a crucial asset in politics: a personal vote. His ability to attract voters independently of a major party machine makes him an attractive ally, suggesting that the party's choice is rooted in political arithmetic aimed at securing a win, rather than merely distributing accolades for years of service.

However, this strategic calculation creates discomfort for loyalists like Christopher Shakafuswa. As the sitting MP and a familiar figure who had already represented the UPND, his displacement after years of political association and established profile by a returning politician in a mere five days sends a powerful message. This message, potentially brutal in its simplicity, suggests that the party values votes above all else: bring us votes and you are embraced; bring fewer votes and your loyalty is appreciated from a distance. While this might be an excellent electoral strategy for short-term gains, it does not necessarily foster strong, long-term party-building or reward consistent dedication.

The crucial question remains whether Adrian Banda is truly unbeatable in Mandevu. While his competitiveness is evident, it does not equate to invincibility. This is where the UPND's decision warrants closer scrutiny. As the governing party, the UPND already benefits from the advantages of incumbency, national visibility, and a robust party machinery. In a by-election, one could argue that a political superhero was not essential; rather, a credible candidate supported by a powerful political organization should suffice. The risk taken in sidelining an incumbent for a recent returnee suggests that the UPND believes Banda offers something that party structures cannot easily generate: a distinct personal appeal and a guaranteed block of votes. If this calculation proves accurate, it will be hailed as a remarkably smart move. Conversely, if it is incorrect, the party may have sacrificed loyalty for what could turn out to be a political mirage.

The ultimate test of this strategy will unfold on November 5. A comfortable victory for Banda would instantly reframe the decision as visionary. His five days in the party would transform into 'strategic reintegration,' and his past independent runs would become evidence of 'grassroots popularity,' leading to universal understanding of the UPND's actions. However, a loss would invite a very different narrative, prompting questions about why a governing party with established structures, an incumbent candidate, and experienced local politicians felt compelled to pursue a candidate who had only just re-entered its fold. Such is the nature of politics: the same decision can appear brilliant before an election and foolish afterwards.

Politically, Shakafuswa might feel betrayed, but strategically, the situation is more nuanced. The UPND is not strictly obligated to reward loyalty if it genuinely believes another candidate significantly improves its chances of winning. Nevertheless, it is premature to assume Banda is unbeatable simply because the party selected him. The UPND has made a clear gamble: prioritizing personal popularity over political seniority. Now, the voters of Mandevu will render their verdict on whether this was a brilliant strategy or merely a case of the UPND being swayed by the latest political shiny object. One fact remains certain in Zambian politics: five days can be enough time to rejoin a party, secure adoption, and become the focal point of an election. Loyalty may take years to cultivate, but a party ticket can, apparently, be secured in less than a week. The upcoming election will determine if this controversial decision proves to be right or wrong, as observers watch the story unfold.