Donald Trump has repeatedly expressed a desire to 'take the oil in Iran' and boasts of the ease with which he could invade Kharg Island, the Islamic Republic's main oil export hub. These statements come amidst an escalating US-Israel war on Iran, which has seen the number of US troops in the Middle East swell to over 50,000, roughly 10,000 more than usual. The Pentagon has reportedly drawn up plans for potential raids on Kharg Island and attacks on coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz. Trump, in an interview with the Financial Times, stated his 'preference would be to take the oil,' drawing a comparison to Venezuela where Washington intends to control the oil industry 'indefinitely.' His rhetoric includes dismissing opponents as 'stupid people' for questioning such a move.

The US military buildup includes the arrival of 2,500 Marines and 2,500 sailors, keeping troop numbers above 50,000, along with an order for about 2,000 soldiers from the Army’s 82nd Airborne Division. Half of a contingent of 5,000 marines specialized in amphibious landings have arrived, with another 2,000 paratroopers expected. In response, Tehran has vehemently promised to 'set American soldiers on fire' should the US President order a ground invasion. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the speaker of Iran’s parliament, accused the US of publicly seeking talks while secretly planning an assault, warning that Iranian forces are 'waiting for the arrival of American troops on the ground to set them on fire and punish their regional partners forever.' Reports also indicate Iran has been laying traps, including anti-personnel and anti-armour mines, on Kharg Island’s shoreline.

The international community has reacted with concern, notably Spain, which has significantly ramped up its opposition to the conflict. Spain closed its airspace to US aircraft involved in attacks and denied the US use of its jointly operated military bases at Rota and Morón de la Frontera for war-related operations. Spanish Defense Minister Margarita Robles publicly called the war 'profoundly illegal and profoundly unjust,' a sentiment echoed by Economy Minister Carlos Cuerpo, who stated the decision was part of not contributing to a 'unilaterally initiated and against international law' war. This strong stance has angered Donald Trump, who previously threatened to cut off trade with Madrid. Consequently, US refuelling planes based in Spain have been diverted to France and Germany.

The conflict has had significant economic ramifications, with oil prices soaring more than 50% in a month. Brent crude rose above $116 a barrel, nearing its highest level since the conflict began on February 28. Iran’s leverage over the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil trade normally passes, has allowed Tehran to create a global energy crisis. The war has already cost 13 US lives and billions of dollars, with predictions of devastating effects on both the US and regional economies.

Despite the escalating crisis, Donald Trump has consistently declared victory, using phrases like 'We’ve won this war. The war has been won,' and 'We are winning so big.' However, critics argue that 'saying it over and over does not make it so.' Political analysts like Tara Setmayer of the Seneca Project highlight that 'you can’t just will a win into existence in war,' noting a lack of public support for the conflict. Biographers like Gwenda Blair point to Trump’s history of constructing narratives and bending reality, influenced by figures like Norman Vincent Peale and his own ambition for celebrity, which he believes allows him to 'get away with things.' This 'truthful hyperbole,' as some describe it, has previously been effective in business and politics but is now colliding with the harsh realities of warfare in Iran.

The military options considered for opening the Strait of Hormuz, such as seizing territory or deploying a massive naval presence, are fraught with peril. Experts warn that even a limited ground incursion risks a body count that could sink a presidency. While Trump dismisses Iranian defenses on Kharg Island as non-existent, reports confirm the presence of mines. Furthermore, the deployed US forces are far short of the estimated 150,000 troops required for a significant land operation in a country three times the size of Iraq. Logistical challenges abound, with Kharg Island situated deep within the Gulf, past the Strait of Hormuz. Securing the strait would necessitate extensive naval escorts, minesweeping, and air support, requiring resources the US currently lacks and potentially relying on allies. The situation is further complicated by the entry of Iran-allied Houthi forces from Yemen into the conflict, posing a threat to another crucial shipping route at the southern end of the Red Sea.

Many observers, including Joel Rubin, a former deputy assistant secretary of state, argue that Trump's reliance on willpower and mental supremacy fundamentally misunderstands the mechanics of warfare, where 'the Iranians don’t have to bend to that.' With no clear exit strategy and declining public support, particularly for a ground invasion, the war threatens to be Trump's 'Waterloo.' Larry Jacobs, director of the Center for the Study of Politics and Governance at the University of Minnesota, warns that this conflict represents 'the demolition of the Donald Trump myth' and a 'deadly drama' that will lead to significant casualties, economic devastation, and a setback for America's standing in the world.