Donald Trump's visit to Beijing, marking the first by a US president in nearly a decade, comes at a crucial juncture as he seeks to mend his international standing, which has been weakened by the ongoing and increasingly unpopular Iran war. Domestically, his administration is also contending with courts striking down his tariffs, intensifying the need for a diplomatic win.

A primary focus of the talks between Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping revolves around a potential security bargain. Xi seeks a signal that Washington is reducing its commitment to Taiwan's security. If Trump were to treat Taiwan's defense as a bargaining chip to secure China’s assistance in de-escalating the Iran conflict, it could have far-reaching implications, potentially undermining Europe's strategic commitments in the Indo-Pacific region.

The Iran war, now in its third month, has seen Tehran tighten its control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil supply. Washington has struggled to transition a fragile ceasefire into a lasting peace, and US officials have been pressing China, as Iran’s largest oil customer and a nation with significant leverage, to encourage the Islamic Republic to reopen the Strait and accept US peace terms. This pressure has led to recent US sanctions on Chinese firms accused of aiding Iranian oil shipments and providing satellite imagery for Iranian military operations. China, however, condemned these as “illegal unilateral sanctions” and invoked a blocking statute, while publicly calling for stability and defending Iran’s right to civilian nuclear energy. During a meeting in Beijing on May 6, 2017, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted his Iranian counterpart, Abbas Araghchi, further highlighting China's complex role.

Economically, Trump is also under pressure to relax chip export controls, driven by the desire for quick business deals. Trading away this technological edge could result in Washington and Beijing unilaterally setting global standards for Artificial Intelligence, leaving Europe to become a mere