The National Basketball Association (NBA) is reportedly nearing its first expansion in nearly two decades, with Commissioner Adam Silver having indicated a fresh look at the idea in December 2020. After years of anticipation and a developing industry around the concept, the league is now poised to add two new teams. ESPN's Shams Charania reported that a vote to explore adding Seattle and Las Vegas franchises, beginning with the 2028-29 season, will be included in next week's board of governors meeting.

The primary driver behind NBA expansion is economic. For the league's 30 existing owners, expansion presents a significant financial opportunity, as the expansion fees are not shared with players and go directly into the owners' pockets. With team valuations soaring—including the Los Angeles Lakers selling for $10 billion last year—the realistic expansion fees have increased substantially, with proposals potentially landing between $7 and $10 billion. If two teams sell for a total of $15 billion, for example, each existing owner would receive a $500 million check, providing a massive incentive for expansion. While some owners initially pushed back on the economics, expansion is now widely seen as an inevitable outcome, with a more binding resolution likely at the July board of governors meeting during the Las Vegas Summer League.

The decision on expansion rests solely with the board of governors, requiring approval from 23 of the 30 existing owners. While the National Basketball Players Association (NBPA) does not have a direct say in adding teams, the union would be very much in favor of the idea, as it would create an additional 30 roster spots (or 36, including two-way contracts).

Seattle is a strong candidate for expansion due to the league's desire to rectify a past wrong. The city has been without an NBA team for nearly 20 years since the SuperSonics relocated to Oklahoma City. Bringing a team back in 2028-29, two decades after the Thunder began playing in OKC, would be a defining event for Commissioner Silver. The previous obstacle, the inadequacy of KeyArena, was resolved with the opening of the renovated Climate Pledge Arena in 2021, now home to the WNBA's Storm and NHL's Kraken.

Las Vegas has emerged as the league's unofficial "31st city," with its annual Summer League evolving into a major NBA event. The city has also hosted the championship round of the Emirates NBA Cup for its first three years. Las Vegas has seen an explosion in sports popularity, welcoming the Raiders (NFL) in 2020, the Aces (WNBA) in 2018, the Golden Knights (NHL) in 2017, and the upcoming Athletics (MLB).

While other cities globally (e.g., Mexico City, Vancouver, Montreal) and domestically (e.g., Kansas City, Louisville, Nashville) have received attention, none were likely to surpass Las Vegas or Seattle. A European division might be possible in the distant future, pending significant advancements in air travel.

A return to Seattle would almost certainly mean the SuperSonics name, logos, colors, and trademarks would be transferred to the new team at no cost, as stipulated in a 2008 agreement between Thunder ownership and the city. This agreement also laid out terms for shared ownership of Sonics history, including the 1979 championship trophy and retired jerseys. The NBA officially combines the history of both teams, though the Thunder do not highlight Seattle stats. Sources indicate that if a team returns to Seattle, the Thunder would cede the Seattle history back to the SuperSonics, similar to how the Charlotte Hornets reclaimed their Charlotte-era history from the New Orleans Pelicans.

If Seattle and Las Vegas, both Western Conference cities, are added, one existing Western Conference franchise would need to shift to the Eastern Conference to rebalance the 17-15 split. The Minnesota Timberwolves, New Orleans Pelicans, and Memphis Grizzlies are the most likely candidates. Geographically, New Orleans and Memphis are the Eastern-most teams in the West, with relatively short flights to several Western opponents. Minnesota, while farther west, is more geographically isolated; its closest Western opponent (Denver Nuggets) is 680 miles away, while six Eastern cities are within that range, making Minnesota the most logical choice, though it would likely be a protracted fight.

Expansion to 32 teams is not expected to change the NBA playoff format, with ten teams still qualifying for the postseason (six directly, four via play-in). Six teams, up from five, would go directly to the draft lottery. However, the NBA Cup format could see positive changes. A 32-team pool would allow the league to mirror the FIFA World Cup structure with eight groups of four teams, enabling every team to play on the final day of group play. The NBA could then have 16 teams advance to the knockout stage (top two from each group) or have only group winners advance to the current knockout format.

The NBA is expected to thoroughly review the entire expansion process before a formal vote, including the expansion draft format, restrictions on initial team spending, and rules governing draft picks. The goal is to balance providing new teams a chance to compete without giving them an unfair advantage. Robust discussions on these rules are anticipated in the coming months.

Past expansion drafts offer insights into how a new draft could work. In 2004, when the Charlotte Bobcats joined, existing teams could protect up to eight players under contract for the next season, with at least one player required to be unprotected. Players with options to become free agents counted towards the protected total, and if selected, their former team would receive a trade exception. While teams could protect restricted free agents (RFAs), past rules did not transfer RFA status to the expansion team, risking the drafting team losing the player for nothing (though the player could not re-sign with his original team). Teams were limited to selecting one player from each existing franchise. The treatment of two-way players, which did not exist in 2004, will also need to be determined.

Learning from previous drafts, in 1995, the Toronto Raptors and Vancouver Grizzlies alternated picks until selecting one player from each of the other 27 existing franchises. The Grizzlies won a coin toss but deferred, allowing them to pick higher in the 1995 NBA draft. The 2004 Charlotte Bobcats front office focused on selecting restricted free agents, though only one of their nine RFA selections re-signed. Standard roster rules will likely apply, allowing up to 21 players in the offseason and 18 (including three two-way contracts) during the regular season.

Expansion teams have historically been slotted into the first round of the NBA draft, not immediately eligible for the No. 1 pick. In 1995, Vancouver picked sixth and Toronto seventh. Charlotte picked fourth in 2004, later trading up to second overall. The Raptors and Grizzlies were also ineligible for the No. 1 pick in their second seasons; the Raptors won the 1996 lottery but the pick went to the Philadelphia 76ers.

New expansion teams would operate under a reduced salary cap for their first two seasons. Using the 2004 Bobcats' 66.6% figure, a 2028-29 expansion team would face a projected salary cap of $121.9 million, compared to $183 million for existing franchises. The cap would increase to 80% in the second season and the full cap in the third. These teams would also be required to spend 90% of their lower cap to meet the league's salary floor. Notably, a player selected and then waived in the expansion draft would still have their salary count towards the salary floor, but not against the cap.