Guinea-Bissau has once again been plunged into uncertainty following a military power grab, with its ousted president, Umaro Sissoco Embalo, seeking refuge in neighboring Senegal. The coup, which saw soldiers seize control on Wednesday, detaining key political figures and shutting down much of the capital, Bissau, has drawn widespread international condemnation from bodies including the United Nations, Ecowas, and the African Union.

Dakar confirmed on Thursday that President Embalo had arrived in Senegal aboard a military aircraft chartered by the Senegalese government. This development occurred amidst swirling accusations that Embalo himself might have played a role in orchestrating the power grab. The military takeover comes at a time of heightened tensions, immediately following Sunday's presidential and parliamentary elections, the results of which were imminently due to be announced this week.

The United Nations Secretary-General, Antonio Guterres, denounced the coup as "an unacceptable violation of democratic principles" and urgently called for the "immediate and unconditional restoration of constitutional order." This intervention highlights a growing international weariness with the recurring cycle of coups in West Africa, with this incident marking the region's tenth military takeover in just five years, following similar events in Mali, Guinea, Sudan, Burkina Faso, Niger, Gabon, and Madagascar.

Despite the strong international stance, the military has pressed ahead with consolidating its authority. General Horta N'Tam, the army's chief of staff and a figure perceived as close to Embalo in recent years, was swiftly sworn in as the transitional leader for a year-long period. Flanked by heavily armed soldiers, General N'Tam announced his new role from military headquarters, declaring, "I have just been sworn in to lead the High Command."

A rival narrative of events quickly emerged from opposition candidate Fernando Dias da Costa, who spoke to AFP from hiding. Dias claimed to have actually won the recent election, possibly with around 52 percent of the vote, and alleged that President Embalo had orchestrated the coup specifically to prevent him from taking office. "I am the president [elect] of Guinea-Bissau," Dias insisted, describing the unfolding events not as a traditional coup but as a move "organised by Mr Embalo."

The upheaval was preceded by a contentious electoral process. Dias had only become the main opposition contender after the Supreme Court barred the long-standing opposition figure Domingos Simoes Pereira from standing in the election. Pereira was subsequently arrested on Wednesday, while Dias reported that he narrowly escaped his campaign headquarters just as armed men arrived to detain him. Observers are now warning of a deepening crisis in the country.

Since achieving independence from Portugal in 1974, Guinea-Bissau has been plagued by political instability, enduring four successful coups and numerous failed attempts. Its moments of stability have typically been short-lived, with election results frequently disputed and political factions often at loggerheads. Regional and international bodies have reacted robustly to the latest coup: the Economic Community of West African States (Ecowas) has suspended Guinea-Bissau from its decision-making bodies, the African Union has unequivocally condemned the takeover, and the European Union has urged a swift return to constitutional rule and the electoral process.