African Lending Revolution: AGI Boss Predicts Interest Rate Plunge as Banks Brace for Change

The Association of Ghana Industries (AGI) expresses strong optimism that the recent reductions in the Bank of Ghana’s (BoG) policy rate will usher in a new era of robust lending and economic growth for businesses across Ghana. The central bank implemented a significant cut of 350 basis points, lowering its key rate to 21.5% on September 18, 2025. This marked the second such reduction in a span of two months, following earlier cuts in July. The decision by the BoG was underpinned by several positive macroeconomic indicators, including a sustained disinflation trend, robust economic growth, and an enhancement of external buffers. Projections indicate that inflation is on track to achieve its medium-term target by the close of 2025.
Dr. Humphrey Ayim-Darke, President of the AGI, emphasized that this new economic environment will inevitably compel commercial banks to intensify their lending activities to businesses. He highlighted that such a shift is further bolstered by upcoming initiatives like the DBG (Development Bank Ghana) guarantee schemes. These schemes, he noted, would provide banks with the necessary assurance, freedom, and capacity to undertake more daring lending ventures. Dr. Ayim-Darke firmly believes that this positive trend will synergistically complement the ongoing macroeconomic gains and the rigorous fiscal consolidation efforts being implemented. "All the macro gains and the drive of the Bank of Ghana and the fiscal consolidation that is happening within that context, the banks will be positioned," he stated, reinforcing the idea that banks will find themselves in a favorable position to expand their lending portfolios.
According to Dr. Ayim-Darke, financial institutions simply cannot afford to ignore these clear market signals. "They have no other choice than to come to the market, because the lending, the T-bill rates also is another factor that is shaping their thoughts and their lending model," he explained. He declared the advent of a "new era" where "real banking is coming to the table," expressing confidence that lending rates will definitely trend downwards. While expressing his optimism, the AGI President also issued a crucial caveat: the sustained benefits of these falling rates depend significantly on the active participation and support of other key institutions, particularly the regulatory authorities. He warned, "The flip side, or the derailing factors that may come to the table, are the role of the various regulatory authorities supporting industry.” This underscores the need for a collaborative approach to fully realize the potential economic uplift.
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