US Vice President JD Vance departed Islamabad on Sunday without securing a deal with Iran, concluding a strenuous 21 hours of negotiations. Vance attributed the failure to Iran's refusal to accept American terms, most notably a commitment to cease nuclear weapon development. Vance stated, "The bad news is that we have not reached an agreement, and I think that’s bad news for Iran much more than it’s bad news for the United States of America." He reiterated the US's "red lines," emphasizing the need for an "affirmative commitment" from Iran not to pursue nuclear weapons or the tools necessary to quickly achieve them, a core goal of President Donald Trump.

These talks, mediated by Pakistan in its capital, Islamabad, marked the first direct US-Iranian meeting in over a decade and the highest-level discussions since the 1979 Islamic Revolution. They followed a fragile two-week ceasefire established after six weeks of conflict. The Iranian delegation, led by parliamentary speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf and foreign minister Abbas Araqchi, arrived in mourning for late supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other war victims. Iranian state media, including Tasnim news agency, cited "excessive" US demands as the reason for the talks' collapse. Before Vance's statement, Iran's government had initially suggested negotiations would continue with technical expert exchanges.

A primary point of contention was the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway through which 20-25% of the world's oil passes. Iran had blocked the strait since the war began, causing global oil prices to soar. The US military had stated it was "setting the conditions" to clear the strait of mines, with reports of two US warships passing through. However, Iran's state media denied any US transits, and US officials later warned that Iran had "haphazardly" laid mines and was now unable to locate and clear them, leaving commercial ships at risk. President Trump, despite the stalled talks, declared on Truth Social that the US was actively clearing the strait and it would be reopened soon.

The six-week conflict, dubbed "Operation Epic Fury" by the US, came with an estimated price tag of $35 billion for American taxpayers. Over 13,000 targets were hit in Iran, involving 10,000 flight missions and 50,000 personnel. A Daily Mail/JL Partners survey revealed that while 33% of American voters considered it a "resounding victory" for the US, 50% believed the war was "definitely not" or "probably not" worth fighting. Furthermore, 49% felt Trump fell short of his objectives, and only 5% believed Iran's nuclear capabilities were completely destroyed, despite presidential claims to the contrary.

The war yielded a complex array of winners and losers. **Iran** emerged militarily weakened but its regime survived, with hardline clerics cementing their power. Intelligence indicated Iran was able to quickly return missile bunkers to operation. Crucially, the peace deal inadvertently granted Iran authority over the Strait of Hormuz, allowing it to charge cryptocurrency tolls of $1 per barrel during the ceasefire. The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) reported that "a lot has survived" of Iran's nuclear capabilities, with an estimated 440.9 kg of 60% uranium still available, enough for 10 nuclear weapons if further enriched.

**Russia and China** also benefited. The conflict led Washington to lift some sanctions on Moscow's oil, boosting Russia's economy. China enhanced its status as a regional mediator by pushing Iran towards the ceasefire. **Pakistan** transformed from a diplomatic outcast to a key mediator, hosting the critical US-Iran talks. **Norway and Canada** capitalized on the global energy crisis, accelerating oil and gas development and exports to meet demand from allies.

On the other hand, the **United States** faced significant drawbacks. While asserting military dominance, the war led to soaring inflation, with energy prices up nearly 11% in March and the national average US gasoline price surpassing $4 a gallon. Food prices also crept up due to increased transport and fertilizer costs. The war proved unpopular at home, dividing Trump's base and contributing to a fall in his approval ratings, especially concerning the economy. Critics labeled the two-week ceasefire as another example of "Trump always chickens out," highlighting the limits of Washington's influence.

**Israel**, particularly Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, suffered diplomatic setbacks. His lobbying for regime change in Iran was dismissed as "farcical" by US intelligence, and his relationship with parts of the Republican Party, already strained by the war in Gaza, was jeopardized. Israel also continued its bombing campaign in **Lebanon**, which bore a devastating cost with 1,800 dead, 5,873 wounded, and 1.1 million displaced civilians. Lebanon became a sticking point in ceasefire discussions, with differing views on whether it was included in the truce, and talks between Israel and Lebanon were expected but fighting persisted.

**NATO nations** were impacted by Trump's repeated threats to withdraw the US from the alliance, citing their perceived lack of support during "Operation Epic Fury." This created a significant rift and raised deep concerns about European security. The **United Kingdom** was particularly vulnerable, facing high gas prices, inflation, and a rattled housing market. Mortgage lenders pulled products, rates surged, and consumer confidence plummeted, leading to buyers pulling out and property prices slumping, as vividly illustrated by the market in Canterbury.

**Gulf states**, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, and Kuwait, endured Iranian attacks on civilian and energy infrastructure. They faced demands from Tehran for the evacuation of US military presence. The war exposed the vulnerability of the Strait of Hormuz and transformed it from a theoretical deterrent into an active geopolitical fault line, impacting tourism and critical data infrastructure plans. Finally, numerous **Asian economies** like South Korea, Sri Lanka, Bangladesh, and the Philippines, heavily reliant on Middle Eastern oil, suffered extensively due to the Strait's closure and the resulting energy crisis, leading to fuel rationing, industrial shutdowns, and economic disruption across the region.