Osun Decides! Adeleke Crowned Victorious Amidst Political Celebrations and Scrutiny

Ademola Adeleke, the incumbent Governor of Osun State, secured his re-election in the recently concluded governorship election, solidifying his mandate for another four-year term. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Adeleke, who contested on the platform of the Accord Party, the winner on Sunday morning after the collation of results from all 30 local government areas (LGAs) in the state. State Returning Officer, Joshua Ogunwole, announced Adeleke garnered a total of 511,067 votes, defeating his closest challenger, Bola Oyebamiji of the All Progressives Congress (APC), who polled 444,815 votes. This victory gave Adeleke a significant margin of 66,252 votes. Najeem Salaam of the African Democratic Congress (ADC) finished a distant third with 17,180 votes.

The election saw 2,339,544 registered voters, with 1,010,684 accredited. Out of the 1,005,800 total votes cast, 985,079 were valid, while 20,721 were rejected. Governor Adeleke demonstrated strong support in 19 of Osun’s 30 local government areas, including traditional strongholds like Ede North (where he polled 35,427 votes against Oyebamiji’s 10,283), Ede South (26,188 votes against 6,219), and the state capital, Osogbo (36,480 votes against 30,474). His victories also extended to Ife East, Iwo, Egbedore, and Oriade. Conversely, Bola Oyebamiji secured wins in 11 LGAs, notably in Irewole (29,972 votes against Adeleke’s 10,934), Boripe (the hometown of former Governor Gboyega Oyetola), Atakunmosa East, Atakunmosa West, Ife South, Ilesa East, Irepodun, Isokan, Obokun, Ola-Oluwa, and Olorunda.

The election drew a variety of reactions from political entities and observers. The Nigeria Governors’ Forum (NGF), led by Governor Abdulrahman AbdulRazaq, extended congratulations to Governor Adeleke and lauded the people of Osun for their substantial voter turnout, emphasizing the resilience of Nigerian democracy. President Bola Ahmed Tinubu also congratulated Adeleke, describing the victory as a testament to the flourishing democracy in Nigeria and urging the governor to unite the people of Osun for collective progress. The Vice-Chancellor of Osun University (UNIOSUN), Odunayo Adebooye, praised Adeleke’s mandate, linking it to the confidence and trust reposed in his administration and highlighting the role of functional education in strengthening democratic values.

However, the election was not without controversy and criticism. The African Democratic Congress (ADC) congratulated Adeleke but simultaneously lambasted the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) for alleged intimidation and the heavy use of government resources during the campaign. The ADC also raised significant concerns regarding the temporary suspension of result uploads on the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV) on Saturday evening, alleging an attempt to interfere with the results. Peter Obi, the presidential candidate of the Nigeria Democratic Congress (NDC), hailed Adeleke’s victory as a crucial democratic achievement, underscoring the power of the people and the vigilance of the youth in protecting their votes, offering lessons for the upcoming 2027 general elections.

Observers from PREMIUM TIMES reported instances of vote trading across polling units, an issue also condemned by the Osun IPAC and the Transition Monitoring Group (TMG). The TMG, a democracy advocacy group, commended INEC and voters for the largely glitch-free conduct, but urged accountability for electoral malpractice perpetrators and called on the judiciary to protect genuine mandates. The absence of APC officials and agents at the final collation centre in Osogbo on Sunday morning was noted, suggesting an early concession of defeat, although the party later stated it was studying the results and would explore all constitutional avenues to challenge them.

A critical focus point was the performance of the INEC Result Viewing Portal (IReV). The Centre for Journalism Innovation and Development (CJID) monitored IReV, observing a relatively rapid transmission of results initially, followed by a slowdown on Saturday evening, and a significant increase overnight. By 9:30 p.m. on election day, 87.5% of polling-unit results (3,292 out of 3,763) were uploaded. This figure reached 98.06% (3,690 polling units) by 7:42 a.m. the following morning, even though 73 polling units remained without displayed results when the final declaration was made. While indicating strong coverage, the CJID highlighted disparities in transmission speed across LGAs and recommended that INEC provide status information for outstanding polling units (e.g., cancelled, not conducted) for greater transparency.

Comparatively, Osun's IReV performance was strong, aligning with improvements seen in recent off-cycle governorship elections in Anambra (99.84% coverage) and Ekiti (97.75%). This suggested a more stable operational environment for IReV since the challenges faced during the 2023 presidential election. However, experts cautioned that state-level success does not guarantee similar outcomes for a national general election due to the vastly different scale and complexity. Recommendations for INEC ahead of 2027 included publishing richer performance data, establishing clearer benchmarks for result transmission, improving communication during interruptions, enhancing the presentation of outstanding polling units, and conducting rigorous stress tests to simulate national election conditions.

The Osun election also ignited broader discussions about the nature of Nigerian democracy. Critics pointed to the massive deployment of “federal might,” including 35,000 police personnel, 10,000 Civil Defence officers, and soldiers, along with numerous political heavyweights, to influence the election. Some analysts drew parallels to past electoral violence in Nigeria, specifically the 1983 anarchy in old Oyo State (which included Osun), which contributed to the collapse of the Second Republic. The election results, therefore, served as a crucial metric for the state of Nigerian democracy and offered insights and warnings for the 2027 general elections, emphasizing the need for sustained vigilance, credible processes, and respect for the will of the people.