Police chiefs have issued an unprecedented warning that "Labour's soft-justice reforms" are set to unleash a crimewave across the streets, predicting a significant surge in crime and substantial financial burden on police forces. This stark intervention comes amidst continuous chaos within the criminal justice system, exemplified by several high-profile mistaken prisoner releases in quick succession.

Gavin Stephens, head of the National Police Chiefs Council (NPCC), revealed that forces are bracing for a spike in crime—estimated to rise by 4 to 6 percent, equating to approximately 360,000 additional crimes annually—once the Government implements plans to reduce incarceration by ditching shorter sentences and releasing inmates earlier. This increase, Mr. Stephens warned, would impose an extra £400 million in police costs next year. He expressed concern that the Government had not yet produced any evaluation of the reform consequences, despite acknowledging the need for systemic change due to overwhelming pressure on police, courts, prisons, and probation.

The proposed Sentencing Bill aims to relieve prison crowding by managing thousands of offenders through community measures like electronic tags, rather than custodial sentences. However, police chiefs fear this will divert officers from crime-solving to enforcing breaches of court and community orders, requiring more staff and potentially eroding public confidence in the justice system. Assistant Chief Constable Jason Devonport underscored this concern, stating that offenders not in prison have the future potential to commit more crimes based on reoffending rates.

The warnings are set against a backdrop of recent scandalous errors, including the mistaken release of two prisoners from HMP Wandsworth. Algerian sex offender Brahim Kaddour-Cherif was wrongly freed, and a manhunt was launched after prison bosses took nearly a week to realize the error. Kaddour-Cherif, a 24-year-old immigration overstayer, was serving time for trespass with intent to steal and had previous convictions for indecent exposure, possessing a knife, assaulting an emergency services worker, and burglary. His release occurred just 48 hours after Justice Secretary David Lammy promised "the strongest ever checks" on prisoner releases.

In another blunder at HMP Wandsworth, British national William "Billy" Smith, a fraudster sentenced to 45 months, was mistakenly released on the same day due to an incorrect sentence logged on his court file. An attempt to correct the error was sent to the wrong person, and by the time the alarm was raised, Smith was already at large. These incidents follow the earlier wrongful release of Ethiopian migrant sex attacker Hadush Kebatu from HMP Chelmsford, who was later arrested and deported after sparking protests.

Political figures have seized on the chaos, with Tory shadow justice secretary Robert Jenrick criticizing "Calamity Lammy" for presiding over a "clown show" and shadow home secretary Chris Philp asserting that the predicted crimewave would be "made in Downing Street" under Labour. Victims' Commissioner for London, Claire Waxman, emphasized that reforms must not compromise public safety and warned of the strain on police forces. Reform UK leader Nigel Farage also weighed in, calling the situation a "total farce."

The Government's controversial early-release scheme has already seen almost 40,000 prisoners in England and Wales freed since September 2024. While acknowledging the crisis in the criminal justice system, critics argue that the current implementation of reforms, coupled with a lack of evaluation and funding, risks exacerbating crime and public insecurity.