The US-Israel war on Iran, which commenced on February 28, has reached its fifth week, with President Donald Trump declaring it a success "nearing completion" despite widespread global economic turmoil, fractured alliances, and escalating conflict. While Trump asserted that "all of America's military objectives" were almost accomplished, his administration has offered mixed and contradictory signals regarding its war aims, notably concerning Iran's highly enriched uranium (HEU) stockpile.

Initially, preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon was cited as a principal justification for the war. However, Trump recently dismissed concerns about Iran's 440kg HEU stockpile, stating, "That’s so far underground, I don’t care about that. We’ll always be watching it by satellite." This position has raised significant questions, as experts contend that leaving the HEU under Iranian control would place Tehran significantly closer to nuclear weapons capability than a potential negotiated settlement that was on the table just two days before the war began. That proposed deal, mediated in Geneva, included diluting the HEU stockpile, reducing enriched uranium stocks, pausing enrichment, and restoring IAEA monitoring. Nuclear proliferation experts, such as Emma Belcher of Ploughshares, argue that this approach fundamentally misunderstands nuclear risk, stating, "We are actually less secure now from the nuclear threat than we were before he started the war." A Pentagon proposal to extract the HEU, involving hundreds of troops and weeks of risky operations, was reportedly requested by Trump but later deemed too hazardous.

Another critical consequence of the conflict has been Iran's effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a vital global oil chokepoint through which a fifth to a third of global oil and a fifth of LNG flows. This blockade has caused oil and gas prices to soar internationally, with Brent crude jumping to over $106 a barrel and US gas prices surpassing $4 a gallon. Trump has delivered inconsistent messages regarding the Strait's reopening, at times demanding allies "grab it and cherish it," and at other times making it a condition for a ceasefire, threatening to "blast Iran into oblivion" until it is "open, free and clear." Iran, however, has furiously rejected Trump's claims of seeking a ceasefire, branding them "false and baseless," and declared that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to its "enemies," reportedly charging around £1.5 million for selected vessel transit. In response, Britain is set to host 35-nation talks aimed at assessing diplomatic and political measures to restore freedom of navigation in the waterway.

The economic fallout from the war has been severe and global. In the UK, average petrol prices surged by 20p a litre in March, and diesel by a staggering 40p, marking the biggest monthly increases on record, exceeding even those seen during Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022. This has led to drivers collectively paying nearly £600 million more at the pumps. The Resolution Foundation warned that UK energy bills could jump by £440 this summer, pushing average bills to £2,100, while the World Bank, IMF, and IEA issued a rare joint statement predicting "substantial, global and highly asymmetric" economic impacts, including inflation, interest rate hikes, and lower growth. UK Chancellor Rachel Reeves expressed anger at Trump's decision to go to war, highlighting increased government borrowing costs and potential £12 billion hole in public finances, while resisting calls to cancel a planned 5p fuel duty hike in September or offer broad energy bill support, arguing against measures that would increase inflation.

The escalating energy crisis has also put significant pressure on the European Union's climate neutrality goals. With gas prices surging by 70% and oil prices by 60% in the EU since the war began, some member states, like Germany and Italy, are considering a temporary return to coal to ease consumer burdens, despite their long-term commitment to clean energy. Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen, however, insists the EU will "double down on our path to energy independence" through domestic clean energy, electrification, and improved efficiency, arguing that reliance on fossil fuels exposes the bloc to external shocks. Countries like Spain and Portugal, with heavy reliance on renewables, have demonstrated greater resilience to price spikes, offering a model for accelerating the deployment of clean energy sources to "durably shield its economy from recurrent external shocks."

Politically, the conflict has been marked by contradictions and criticisms. Trump's address from the White House, where he claimed Iran's navy and air force were "decimated," was criticized by Democrats as "incoherent" and lacking answers about the conflict's direction and economic impact. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian questioned the war's justification in an appeal to the American people, asserting Iran's attacks were "measured responses grounded in legitimate self-defense." Trump's foreign policy has also seen him lash out at US allies for their lack of support, even suggesting he was "absolutely without question" considering withdrawing from NATO, which he referred to as a "paper tiger." Meanwhile, the war continues to grind on, with thousands killed in Iran, Lebanon, and Israel, and US forces striking over 12,300 targets inside Iran.

The ongoing war on Iran, coupled with Trump's fluctuating rhetoric and the severe global economic repercussions, paints a picture of deep uncertainty and escalating instability. The complex interplay of geopolitical strategy, energy security, and domestic economic pressures leaves fundamental questions unanswered about the conflict's resolution and its long-term consequences.