The past week concluded with Bitcoin's price settling at $115,333, having failed to break through the significant $118,000 resistance level. After three consecutive weeks of gains, the bullish momentum in Bitcoin finally waned, even the U.S. Federal Reserve's anticipated interest rate cut by 25 basis points was insufficient to push the price past this critical threshold. While the Fed's announcement on Thursday initially propelled Bitcoin towards $118,000, it was ultimately rejected, signaling a strong barrier.

The weekly close on Sunday produced a "shooting star doji" candle, a technical pattern often indicative of a potential price reversal. This suggests that bears have successfully intervened to curb Bitcoin's recent upward trajectory, implying a likely period of renewed bearish strength in the upcoming week as they aim to test established support levels.

Looking at key support levels, traders are eyeing $111,300 as an immediate potential floor, a level Bitcoin approached following a significant sell-off on Sunday night. Should price fall below $111,300, attention will shift to the 21 Exponential Moving Average (EMA), currently positioned at $109,500. A weekly close beneath the 21 EMA would likely invalidate the $107,000 low, directing focus to the $105,000 level as the next major support. Conversely, the price had crashed through the $113,800 support on Sunday night, and a close above this level this week would be seen as a renewed sign of strength for the bulls. The next resistance level above this is identified at $115,500. Establishing these levels as support is crucial for another attempt at the $118,000 resistance.

The substantial sell-off on Sunday night, which saw Bitcoin's price drop to $111,800, presents two primary interpretations for the week ahead. Rapid corrections often occur within overall bullish trends, suggesting the low for the week might already be in, potentially paving the way for more bullish price action. However, it could also mark the initiation of a new downtrend, with a minor bounce followed by continued bearish pressure. To maintain a bullish outlook this week, Bitcoin needs to regain the $113,800 level. In contrast, bears will aim to push the price below $111,300 to solidify their control.

Currently, the market mood is assessed as bearish, primarily due to the rejection of the $118,000 resistance and the appearance of the shooting-star doji candle, indicating that bears are in temporary command.

Extending the view into the next few weeks, the focus will be on establishing a higher low on the weekly chart. If a reversal occurs before the price reaches the $107,000 low, bulls could form this higher low and potentially regain control. The MACD oscillator remains in a slightly bearish position since crossing bearish at the end of August, which is expected to help bears keep prices subdued. Bulls will be closely watching for a bullish MACD cross in the coming weeks, which would provide additional strength to overcome the challenging $118,000 resistance.

Terminology Guide:

• Bulls/Bullish: Refers to buyers or investors who anticipate an increase in price.
• Bears/Bearish: Refers to sellers or investors who expect a decrease in price.
• Support or support level: A price point where an asset's price is expected to halt its decline, at least initially. Repeated tests of a support level tend to weaken it, increasing the likelihood of a breakdown.
• Resistance or resistance level: The opposite of support, this is a price point expected to impede an asset's price increase, at least initially. Frequent touches at resistance tend to weaken it, making a breakout more probable.
• EMA (Exponential Moving Average): A type of moving average that gives more weight to recent prices, thereby reducing lag compared to simple moving averages.
• Oscillators: Technical indicators that fluctuate within a predefined band, typically between oversold and overbought conditions (e.g., Relative Strength Index (RSI), Moving Average Convergence-Divergence (MACD)).
• MACD Oscillator (Moving Average Convergence-Divergence): A momentum oscillator that calculates the difference between two moving averages to identify trends and momentum.