Bitcoin's price experienced a significant slide on Friday, dipping to fresh six-month lows and decisively breaking below the psychological $100,000 mark. This intensified a sell-off that has eradicated nearly a quarter of its value in just over a month. By midday, Bitcoin was trading between $94,000 and $97,000, marking its weakest level since early May and a sharp decline from its October all-time high of $126,296, according to Bitcoin Magazine Pro data. At the time of writing, the price was $94,850, having bounced off of levels at $94,000.

This drop concludes a tumultuous week across global markets, where risk assets, including tech giants and crypto stocks, have fallen amidst collapsing expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut in December. Just two weeks prior, traders had priced in a near-certain 97% chance of easing, but that probability has now plummeted to approximately 50%, triggering deleveraging across both equities and digital assets.

The decline in Bitcoin's price is not solely attributed to macro pressures; internal market dynamics have also amplified the downturn. New data from CryptoQuant indicates that long-term holders have offloaded an estimated 815,000 BTC over the past 30 days, representing the largest such exodus since early 2024. Simultaneously, spot demand has weakened significantly, with U.S.-listed spot Bitcoin ETFs recording hundreds of millions in daily outflows, thereby draining liquidity and fueling downside momentum.

The market turmoil extends beyond the crypto sphere, impacting risk-sensitive equities. Companies like Nvidia, Tesla, Palantir, Coinbase, and various Bitcoin miners were heavily affected in this week's trading sessions as investors shifted away from speculative assets. Growing apprehension over a potential AI bubble, combined with uncertainties surrounding delayed U.S. economic data following a 43-day government shutdown, pushed the VIX to its highest reading since mid-October. Furthermore, institutional buying has fallen below the daily supply issued by miners, adding persistent sell pressure at a time when market liquidity is diminishing.

Bitcoin's price is now hovering near critical levels, specifically its closely watched 365-day moving average around $100,000. Analysts at Bitcoin Magazine Pro suggest this level could determine whether the current pullback escalates into a sharper correction. Researchers at Bitfinex noted that the drawdown from October's peak closely mirrors typical mid-cycle retracements, aligning with the roughly 22% pullbacks observed throughout the 2023–2025 bull market. Despite the dip below $100,000, they estimate that approximately 72% of all circulating Bitcoin remains profitable, indicating that long-term holders still retain gains even as market sentiment deteriorates.

Other analysts perceive signs that the market might be approaching a floor. JPMorgan estimates that Bitcoin's current production cost, driven higher by increasing network difficulty, is around $94,000. This level has historically served as a robust downside anchor. With the price now nearing this threshold, JPMorgan argues that Bitcoin's price-to-cost ratio is back near historical lows and maintains a bullish 6–12 month outlook, targeting roughly $170,000.

The forces driving this correction are much larger than the actions of retail traders. Whales, institutions, and leveraged market structures now largely dictate major price movements, with single transfers from wallets holding thousands of BTC capable of shifting sentiment across exchanges. However, Glassnode views Bitcoin's recent wave of whale selling not as panic, but as typical late-cycle behavior. Glassnode indicates that long-term holders are steadily realizing profits, with monthly spending increasing from 12,000 BTC per day in July to about 26,000, which is consistent with normal bull-market distribution rather than a sudden