Atiku Ignites Firestorm: Fuel Subsidy Return Pledge Shakes Political Landscape

Former Vice President and African Democratic Congress (ADC) presidential candidate, Atiku Abubakar, has reignited the national debate on petrol subsidy by pledging to restore it if elected president in the 2027 general elections. This announcement marks a significant reversal of his previous stance, where he had not opposed the subsidy's removal during the 2023 electioneering period, even once describing it as a "fraud" in 2022. Atiku made his latest pledge during a Facebook live interview, criticizing the economic consequences of the subsidy removal and questioning the utilization of the substantial savings announced by the federal government.

Abubakar's updated position argues that while he initially did not oppose the removal, the lack of tangible benefits for ordinary Nigerians, coupled with rising living costs, has necessitated a change of heart. He promised to investigate the management of previous subsidy funds and recover any stolen monies. The Tinubu administration had ended the petrol subsidy on May 29, 2023, citing its financial unsustainability, opportunities for fraud, smuggling, and inefficiency, and the need to free resources for critical infrastructure and social programs. The government claims these reforms, including naira liberalization, generated N15.8 trillion in savings for the federation between June 2023 and December 2025, with N5.43 trillion accruing to the Federal Government, N6.52 trillion to states, and N3.88 trillion to local governments.

However, Atiku has unveiled a refined proposal under the "Atiku Economic Recovery Plan (AERP) 2027," which he describes as a targeted, capped, transparently budgeted, and independently audited production subsidy. This plan aims to shift the subsidy from importation to domestic production, from middlemen to Nigerian refineries, and from unverifiable claims to verifiable barrels. Under AERP, qualifying public and private Nigerian refineries would receive domestic crude at a preferential price, subject to strict conditions for production, efficiency, transparency, and domestic supply. The cost of this intervention would be openly accounted for, with known ceilings and measurable benefits to consumers, preventing refinery owners from retaining the benefit without passing it on to Nigerians. Strict safeguards would be in place against arbitrage, and eligibility would be rules-based to prevent enrichment of specific operators. The AERP intervention would also include statutory sunset and periodic review provisions, with the ultimate goal of building a self-sufficient refining industry that no longer requires subsidies.

This proposal has drawn sharp criticism from the Presidency and the All Progressives Congress (APC). Bayo Onanuga, Special Adviser to the President on Information and Strategy, accused Atiku of