The ongoing conflict involving Iran and the United States, described by analysts as the worst energy crisis in modern history, is causing severe disruptions globally, with impacts already manifesting as dry pumps and rationing at fuel stations along Koinange Street and Bunyala Road in Nairobi. This crisis stems primarily from the disruption of the Strait of Hormuz, a critical shipping route responsible for approximately 20 percent of the world's oil and gas supply. Its closure has choked global supply, pushing oil prices above Sh13,000 (100 USD) per barrel and leading to sharp increases in fuel costs worldwide. The International Energy Agency (IEA) has characterized this situation as the largest supply disruption ever recorded, surpassing even the 1973 oil embargo. Furthermore, extensive damage to energy infrastructure across the Middle East, with dozens of oil and gas facilities affected, has exacerbated the supply crunch and prolonged the crisis.

In Kenya, the energy crisis has led to widespread hoarding of petroleum products, including petrol, diesel, and paraffin, by most petrol stations. This hoarding is driven by the anticipation of a consumer fuel price hike in the upcoming month, following the Ministry of Energy's review of pump prices. Many stations also report running low on supply and struggling with profitability due to the regulator freezing pump prices despite the escalating global oil costs. Motorists are experiencing fuel shortages and long queues, especially in the mornings, as they rush to fill their tanks in fear of future price increases or scarcity caused by the Middle East conflict. Amidst this, Kiharu Member of Parliament Ndindi Nyoro has urged the government to address the looming crisis by either reinstating fuel subsidies or removing the Sh7 levy instituted in 2024, as the government remains silent on the issue.

The global repercussions are far-reaching. Asian economies, which are heavily reliant on imported fuel, have been among the hardest hit, with countries like Japan and Australia experiencing double-digit surges in diesel and petrol costs. In Southeast Asia and India, shortages have disrupted transport and small businesses, with warnings of potential closures due to rising energy expenses. European nations are confronting renewed inflationary pressures, with escalating energy costs threatening economic recovery; the United Kingdom, for instance, faces a risk of stagflation. Even the United States, despite being a major oil producer, has not been spared, witnessing significant climbs in fuel prices that contribute to inflation and political pressure.

Governments worldwide are implementing a range of coping mechanisms, encompassing both short-term emergency actions and long-term structural changes. In a coordinated effort, IEA member countries have released over 400 million barrels of oil from strategic reserves, marking the largest such move in history, aimed at stabilizing supply and mitigating price shocks. Several countries, including Bangladesh, have introduced fuel rationing and consumption limits to restrict the purchase of petrol and diesel by individuals and businesses. Additionally, some governments are shortening work weeks, enforcing blackouts, and limiting industrial energy use to conserve fuel and electricity. Authorities and global agencies are also promoting public transport, carpooling, remote work, and reduced non-essential travel to curb fuel consumption.

The crisis is also accelerating the global transition towards alternative energy sources. There has been a notable surge in demand for electric vehicles across Asia and other regions, as consumers seek to hedge against volatile fuel prices. Concurrently, countries are fast-tracking investments in solar and wind energy, nuclear power, and diversifying liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports from alternative routes. Energy companies are increasing their focus on electricity-based systems to reduce reliance on oil. Experts caution that if the conflict persists, the world could face recessionary pressures and prolonged economic instability, with rising transport and food costs already driving global inflation. While emergency measures offer some relief, a quick fix remains elusive as long as key supply routes remain disrupted. The crisis is expected to leave a lasting legacy, accelerating the global shift away from fossil fuels while unequivocally exposing the vulnerabilities of a world still heavily dependent on oil.