Nigeria's Super Eagles have significantly boosted their chances of winning the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) following a dominant and flawless group stage performance. Initially considered outsiders despite their star-studded squad, Nigeria's perfect run has prompted Opta’s supercomputer to reassess their title credentials, moving them from a 7.3% chance to 10.09% of lifting the trophy.

Before the tournament began, Nigeria was not among the top favourites, ranking fifth behind Morocco, Egypt, Senegal, and Algeria. This cautious outlook was influenced by the retirement of captain William Troost-Ekong, injuries to key defenders Ola Aina and Benjamin Fredrick, and a challenging Group C alongside Tunisia, Uganda, and Tanzania. Despite Opta giving them only a 42.9% chance to top their group, the Super Eagles defied expectations by winning all three matches, securing a perfect nine points and forcing an upward revision of their odds ahead of the knockout stage.

Despite this impressive group-stage showing, Nigeria's path to the AFCON title remains formidable. In the Round of 16, they are set to face Mozambique, identified as the strongest third-placed team, a dangerous opponent with nothing to lose. Should Nigeria advance, a potential quarterfinal clash against the winner of DR Congo versus Algeria looms, with DR Congo notably having eliminated the Super Eagles from World Cup qualifying playoffs in the past. Furthermore, hosts and favourites Morocco, perennial rivals Cameroon, and South Africa, who topped Nigeria’s World Cup qualifying group, all reside on the same side of the draw, underscoring the brutal knockout path ahead.

Former Nigerian international and captain Sunday Oliseh has issued a stern warning to the Super Eagles, emphasizing that the knockout phase demands a completely different mindset. Oliseh stressed that "if you lose, you go home," making results and defensive responsibility paramount over playing beautifully. He praised the team's final group match against Uganda as their most complete performance, highlighting improvements in structure, defensive organization, compactness, and the ability to nullify the opposition. Oliseh also commended head coach Eric Chelle for tactical adjustments and urged Nigeria to replicate that disciplined approach: staying compact, preventing the opposition from playing, and then counter-attacking effectively.

Adding to the intensity of the upcoming Round of 16 clash, Mozambique midfielder Manuel Kambala has boldly declared his team's capability to eliminate Nigeria. While Nigeria, led by head coach Eric Chelle, enters the knockout stage with a perfect group record, Mozambique's qualification marks a historic first for their nation, achieved through a dramatic 3-2 victory over Gabon, despite losses to Côte d’Ivoire and and Cameroon. Kambala expressed unwavering confidence, stating, "I believe we will advance. We won't return to Mozambique on January 5th," dismissing historical odds that show Mozambique has never defeated Nigeria in five previous encounters, with their last AFCON meeting in 2010 ending in a 3-0 victory for Nigeria. Kambala insisted that past results are irrelevant, asserting that the current Mambas squad has proven its mettle on the field.

As Nigeria enters the critical knockout stages of AFCON 2025, their improved statistical chances are tempered by the warnings from seasoned veterans like Sunday Oliseh and the confident challenge posed by opponents like Mozambique. The Super Eagles' ability to navigate this treacherous path, combining their offensive prowess with defensive discipline, will determine their ultimate success in the tournament.