Trump's Shadow War: Potential 'Full-Fledged War' in Iran Looms as Nuclear Demands Go Unmet

President Donald Trump is reportedly weighing significant military options against Iran, with a potential campaign beginning 'within days' amidst a major US military buildup in the Middle East. Discussions have focused on how best to utilize America's weaponry, with a leaning towards targeted and limited strikes on the Iranian regime as a first step to secure a nuclear deal.
Advisors believe such targeted attacks, aimed at military and government sites, would pressure the Islamic Republic into negotiations. President Trump, speaking at the inaugural meeting of his Board of Peace, warned that the US could bomb Iran if a deal is not reached within 10 days. However, officials in the region cautioned that this tactic could halt negotiations for a 'significant period.' Should this initial approach fail, a more aggressive strategy could involve striking regime facilities to attempt to oust the entire leadership, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Discussions in the Oval Office have also considered a larger plan of attack, described as a 'weeks-long campaign' resembling 'full-fledged war' that could prove 'existential for the regime' and dramatically influence the entire region. This operation is expected to be coordinated with Israel and would be broader in scope than previous interventions, potentially redefining the remaining years of Trump's presidency.
The US military presence in the Middle East has expanded significantly, with two aircraft carriers, dozens of warships, hundreds of fighter jets (including F-35s, F-22s, and F-16s), and advanced air defense systems deployed. Over 150 US cargo flights have transported weapons and ammunition. The USS Gerald R. Ford, the world's largest aircraft carrier, is also heading to the eastern Mediterranean, capable of protecting Israel from counter-attacks or launching strikes against Iran.
Nuclear talks between US advisors Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff and Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi in Geneva stalled recently, with both sides acknowledging 'major gaps.' Vice President JD Vance noted that while Trump still seeks an agreement, diplomacy might soon reach its 'natural end,' with the president having set 'red lines' that Iran is unwilling to acknowledge.
A critical point of contention has arisen with the United Kingdom, which has reportedly blocked the US from using RAF bases like Diego Garcia in the Indian Ocean and RAF Fairford in Gloucestershire for a potential strike on Iran. The UK's refusal, citing concerns over international law, prompted criticism from Trump on Truth Social. He emphasized the strategic importance of Diego Garcia for US operations, particularly in the event Iran fails to make a deal, and urged the UK not to 'GIVE AWAY DIEGO GARCIA!'
Potential US targets in Iran include its nuclear facilities, ballistic missile sites, and military installations. Beyond strikes, there is consideration for triggering regime change from the air, which could involve attempts to assassinate Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei and senior officers, along with chiefs of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Analysts suggest this could, combined with potential nationwide popular demonstrations, lead to the end of the Islamic Republic by aiming to disrupt the regime's communications and organization, potentially encouraging the mainstream Iranian army to side with the people.
Despite his rhetoric about bringing 'peace to the Middle East' and ending wars through initiatives like the Board of Peace, Trump has consistently threatened Iran with 'bad things' if a 'meaningful deal' is not reached. Timelines for military action remain uncertain, with some advisors suggesting 'kinetic action in the next few weeks,' while others anticipate a longer wait. Trump previously launched Operation Midnight Hammer, attacking three nuclear facilities in Iran, just three days after setting a two-week window for a decision on talks or action in June.
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