Former US President Donald J. Trump recently offered to restart United States-led mediation efforts between Egypt and Ethiopia concerning the contentious issue of the Nile waters and the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). In a letter dated January 16, addressed to Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi, Trump emphasized the resolution of tensions surrounding the GERD as a top priority, linking it to his broader vision for achieving lasting peace across the Middle East and Africa.

In his communication, Trump expressed readiness for US mediation to "responsibly resolve the question of 'The Nile Water Sharing' once and for all," acknowledging the profound significance of the Nile River to Egypt and its populace. He articulated Washington's position that no single state in the region should unilaterally control the Nile's precious resources to the disadvantage of its neighbors. Furthermore, he stressed the imperative of securing long-term water needs for Egypt, Sudan, and Ethiopia, proposing an agreement that would guarantee predictable water releases during droughts for Egypt and Sudan, while enabling Ethiopia to generate substantial amounts of electricity, potentially for sale to its downstream neighbors.

The letter also conveyed Trump's deep concern that the GERD dispute could escalate into a major military conflict between Egypt and Ethiopia. This particular correspondence was notably copied to several regional leaders, including Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince and Prime Minister Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan, Ethiopian President Taye Atske Selassie, and Sudan's Transitional Sovereign Council Chairman, General Abdel Fattah al-Burhan. This broad distribution hinted at potential wider regional diplomatic engagement, particularly in light of concurrent reports of Saudi Arabia forming a new military coalition with Somalia and Egypt, a move interpreted by some as an effort to counter the United Arab Emirates' expanding regional influence.

The United States' direct involvement in negotiations over the GERD originated during President Donald Trump's first term in 2019. Following a directive from the leaders of Egypt and Ethiopia at a Russia-Africa Summit in Sochi on October 24, 2019, a renewed series of dialogues was convened in Washington, D.C. These talks were co-hosted by then-US Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and World Bank Group President David Malpass, involving the foreign ministers of Ethiopia, Egypt, and Sudan, who also met with President Trump at the White House. These meetings successfully revived formal negotiations, building upon earlier engagements that included several technical experts' and ministerial-level sessions. However, despite initial momentum, the US-facilitated process reached an impasse, with negotiations stalling after December 2019, and Egypt later accusing Ethiopia of hindering progress on discussions regarding the dam's filling and operation.

Years of diplomatic inactivity gave way to a formal reboot of talks on July 13, 2023, when Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed and Egyptian President Abdel Fattah el-Sisi held a face-to-face meeting in Cairo. This marked a significant high-level breakthrough after nearly a decade. Both leaders agreed to work towards finalizing an agreement on the initial filling and annual operation of the GERD within a four-month timeframe. Unfortunately, this renewed diplomatic push did not yield the anticipated success. Four subsequent rounds of talks, alternately held in Cairo and Addis Abeba, concluded without a consensus. The stalemate deepened when Egypt announced its withdrawal from the GERD negotiations in August 2024, accusing Ethiopia of a "persistent refusal to accept any of the technical or legal compromise solutions that would safeguard the interests of all three countries." Sudan echoed this sentiment, also threatening to step away from the process and rejecting proposals related to the sharing of Blue Nile waters. Both nations called for a suspension of negotiations for internal consultations, a move that contradicted previous understandings reached during an African Union summit.

The core of the dispute revolves around differing interpretations of water rights. Egypt and Sudan historically base their claims on "historic rights" established by agreements from 1929 and 1959. Ethiopia, conversely, champions the 2010 Cooperative Framework Agreement, which was signed by six Nile Basin countries but notably boycotted by Egypt and Sudan. Amidst these diplomatic setbacks and the failure to revive productive negotiations, Ethiopia pressed forward with the construction of the dam, formally inaugurating the completion of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam in September 2025.

It is also worth noting that President Trump's past commentary on the GERD has included inflammatory and inaccurate statements. In the summer prior to his recent mediation offer, he made false assertions claiming US funding for the GERD and alleging that the dam had cut off Nile water and reduced Egypt's supply. On his Truth Social platform, Trump referred to the dam as "stupidly financed by the United States of America" and stated it "substantially reduces the water flowing into the Nile River," while listing what he considered achievements worthy of a Nobel Peace Prize. Ethiopia has consistently maintained that the GERD is domestically financed and designed to regulate, not reduce, downstream Nile flows, a position corroborated by independent technical assessments.