The New Patriotic Party (NPP) is gearing up for its keenly contested presidential primary on January 31, 2026, to select its flagbearer for the upcoming 2028 national elections. The race features prominent figures including former Vice President Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, Kennedy Agyapong, Ing. Kwabena Agyei Agyepong, Dr. Bryan Acheampong, and Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum.

Recent analyses from leading polling organizations, Global InfoAnalytics and Africa Policy Lens (APL), consistently project Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia as the dominant frontrunner. Mussa Dankwah, Executive Director of Global InfoAnalytics, has expressed unwavering confidence in his organization's polls, which indicated Dr. Bawumia leads with 51% support among committed voters, followed by Kennedy Agyapong at 26%, with 23% undecided. APL's final survey, released on January 27, also tipped Dr. Bawumia to win emphatically in the first round with 61% of the vote, significantly ahead of Kennedy Agyapong at 25.10%, and other aspirants like Dr. Bryan Acheampong (5.20%), Kwabena Agyapong (0.30%), and Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum (0.10%). Both organizations emphasize that the “Bawumia Factor” appears to outweigh the strong grassroots momentum perceived behind Kennedy Agyapong.

Global InfoAnalytics delves into the dynamics influencing delegate choices, revealing that 23% prioritize a candidate's “ability to win the 2028 national elections.” Other significant factors include caring for the grassroots (17%), bringing change (16%), uniting the party (16%), and trustworthiness (11%). Interestingly, only 2% of delegates prioritize a candidate being a “fighter,” suggesting that confrontational politics may not resonate well. Furthermore, survey data revealed a significant age imbalance among NPP delegates, with over 88% being above 35 years old, contradicting claims of youth dominance. Delegates aged 35-44 constitute 43%, and 45-54 form 34%. This demographic structure implies that candidates relying heavily on youth support might face internal election challenges. The survey sample also showed 81% males and 19% females.

Kennedy Agyapong’s campaign has faced scrutiny regarding messaging and conduct, which Mussa Dankwah suggests led to a decline in his support during the final stages of the campaign. Dankwah highlighted a significant dip in Agyapong’s ratings in the last week following a video where he made negative comments about Dr. Bawumia, a move that Dankwah believes ultimately harmed Agyapong’s standing among NPP delegates. Despite this, Charles Onuawonto Bissue, Campaign Administrator for Kennedy Agyapong, vigorously defends his candidate, asserting that Agyapong possesses a unique combination of qualities—money, wisdom, and strength. Bissue emphasized Agyapong's long parliamentary experience of 24 years, including chairing the sensitive Defence and Interior Committee, and his extensive personal financial support for the party and individuals, much of which goes unnoticed. Bissue also pushed back against the “presidential material” narrative, describing Agyapong as a “magnet” capable of mobilizing significant crowd support and connecting with ordinary party members. He argued that Agyapong’s outspoken nature stems from a desire to correct party mistakes and that his willingness to accept responsibility and apologize when wrong exemplifies true leadership. Bissue also expressed concern over a perceived decline in discipline and communication within the NPP.

Conversely, Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia has maintained high favourable ratings, reaching 93% in Global InfoAnalytics' assessment. Francis Asenso Boakye, MP for Bantama, has urged delegates to vote massively for Dr. Bawumia, asserting that this reflects the will of the party's grassroots. He cited widespread calls for Bawumia's leadership across various social gatherings and underscored the party's tradition of retaining presidential candidates who have already been presented to the electorate, as seen with former Presidents Kufuor and Akufo-Addo, and NDC's Mills and Mahama. Asenso Boakye praised Bawumia's intellect, humility, and vision, warning that abandoning him would be a strategic error for the NPP.

While Prophet Bernard Elbernard Nelson-Eshun has claimed a divine confirmation for Kennedy Agyapong's victory in the spiritual realm, insisting rigging cannot change the outcome, the data from polling organizations suggests a different reality on the ground. With the NPP presidential primary drawing near, the consistent polling projections, combined with an analysis of delegate priorities and demographics, indicate a challenging path for contenders vying against Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia, who appears poised to secure the flagbearer position.