Nigeria recorded its lowest petrol import levels in February 2026, primarily due to a significant increase in domestic refining capacity, spearheaded by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. This development marks a pivotal structural shift in the country's downstream petroleum sector, dramatically reducing its reliance on foreign refined products and bolstering local supply autonomy. The latest industry data, derived from an official factsheet on Nigeria’s midstream and downstream petroleum operations, underscores this emerging trend.

Total daily supply of petrol experienced a sharp decline from 64.9 million litres per day in January to 39.6 million litres per day in February. This represents a substantial reduction of 25.4 million litres per day, equivalent to a 39.1 percent drop in overall supply during the period. The report explicitly attributed this decline to a significant reduction in petrol imports. Critically, despite the decrease in total supply, domestic refining contributed the overwhelming majority of available petrol. Average domestic petrol supply in February stood at 36.5 million litres per day, meaning locally refined fuel accounted for approximately 92 percent of the total product supply. Consequently, imported petrol constituted only about 3.1 million litres per day, or roughly 8 percent of the total supply, highlighting the growing influence of domestic refineries in Nigeria’s fuel supply chain.

In response to this improved local production, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) has suspended the issuance of new petrol import licences for two consecutive months. This decision reflects the government's strategic effort to prioritize locally refined petroleum products and align with the provisions of the Petroleum Industry Act (PIA). The PIA mandates that petrol imports are only permissible when domestic refining capacity falls short of national demand. George Ene-Ita, spokesperson for the NMDPRA, affirmed that the regulator halted new import licences because local production currently meets consumption levels, stating that licenses would only be issued to buffer local production if a shortfall were to occur.

This current stance contrasts with January 2025, when the NMDPRA, under previous leadership, had defended the issuance of import licences, noting that the Dangote refinery was not yet capable of meeting the country’s petrol demand. Despite the sharp decline in imports in February 2026, Nigeria successfully maintained a 31-day petrol sufficiency level, indicating adequate fuel stocks to meet demand for approximately one month. Fuel consumption data showed that average daily petrol consumption was 36.6 million litres, slightly below the total daily supply of 39.6 million litres, confirming that available volumes were sufficient to satisfy immediate market demand.

However, broader consumption statistics indicated that overall petrol demand across the economy remained elevated. Based on a national consumption benchmark of 50 million litres per day, actual petrol usage, measured through truck-out volumes, averaged 56.9 million litres per day, approximately 13.8 percent higher than the benchmark. Similarly, diesel demand significantly exceeded projections; against a benchmark of 14 million litres per day, actual average daily usage reached 20.3 million litres, representing about 45 percent above the expected level. Conversely, aviation fuel demand remained largely stable relative to projections, with actual daily usage averaging 2.9 million litres compared to a benchmark of 3 million litres per day, a marginal 3.3 percent shortfall.

Domestic refining activity extended beyond petrol production. Local refineries supplied an average of 8.2 million litres per day of diesel during February, although operational disruptions affected some facilities. Additionally, three modular refineries — Waltersmith, Edo, and Aradel — collectively supplied an average of 0.368 million litres of diesel per day, contributing steady, albeit modest, volumes. The Waltersmith refinery continued the introduction of hydrocarbons into its processing system, signaling ongoing efforts to ramp up refining capacity within Nigeria’s modular refinery segment. Meanwhile, government refineries like the Port Harcourt and Kaduna facilities remained shut in February, though existing diesel stocks were being evacuated at 392,000 litres per day and 27,000 litres per day, respectively. The Warri refinery remained inactive with no evacuation activities.

Across the broader petroleum products market, consumption remained robust, with cooking gas demand staying strong, reaching an average daily consumption of 4,194 metric tonnes. Nigeria’s strategic fuel reserves remained adequate across key products: diesel reserves were sufficient for 48 days, aviation fuel stocks for 73 days, and cooking gas reserves for 22 days. Beyond liquid fuels, Nigeria’s gas sector also maintained strong supply levels, with total average daily gas supply in February reaching 4.771 billion standard cubic feet. Of this volume, 3.018 billion cubic feet per day was supplied to the Nigeria LNG plant, while 1.763 billion cubic feet per day was delivered to the domestic market. Gas utilization across sectors showed that power generation consumed 0.536 billion cubic feet per day, commercial users accounted for 0.628 billion cubic feet, and gas-based industries utilized about 0.440 billion cubic feet per day.

Furthermore, several strategic gas infrastructure projects continued to advance. The Ajaokuta-Kaduna-Kano (AKK) gas pipeline achieved 79.23 percent completion, while the OB3 River Niger crossing project stood at 59.50 percent completion. Other ongoing projects include the Escravos-Odidi pipeline expansion at 67.34 percent, the Odidi-Warri expansion project at 11.18 percent, and the ELPS midline compressor project, which has reached 93 percent completion.