The cryptocurrency market is currently facing significant challenges, with major assets experiencing substantial downturns that prompt a reevaluation of their structural integrity. Bitcoin is displaying one of its worst monthly candles in over a decade, XRP is on the brink of a critical $1 "hard reset" level, while Ethereum, despite short-term bearishness, hints at underlying bullish potential.

Bitcoin's monthly chart reveals an exceptionally severe candle, potentially erasing nearly the entire 2025 uptrend. After recently peaking above $130,000, Bitcoin has retreated towards the mid-$80,000s. This unprecedented 23% collapse at all-time-high levels compels long-term investors to question whether this is a temporary shakeout or if the market cycle has already peaked. Unlike previous bull markets where significant monthly corrections occurred after full parabola maturity, Bitcoin's momentum broke shortly after acceleration. This suggests the market may not have been as structurally sound entering Q4 as narratives implied. Technically, if the candle closes below the 2021 peak region (which served as initial support for the new cycle), the next significant support cluster lies between $70,000 and $72,000, where the 20-month EMA and previous consolidation zone intersect. A monthly loss of this level would effectively negate two years of bullish progress, with the ultimate line in the sand being approximately $60,000. Furthermore, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is sharply rolling over from overheated monthly levels, signaling exhaustion. Volume is also unsupportive, showing a classic reversal pattern of declining on the way up and exploding on the way down.

XRP's market structure is rapidly deteriorating, breaking deeper into a descending channel that has dictated its price action. Every recovery attempt at the channel's upper boundary has been thwarted, indicating sellers maintain full control. XRP is currently trading slightly above $2, resting on the lower trendline of this declining channel. Historically, this area has provided brief bounces, but it has not halted the general downtrend in recent months. The critical question for XRP is whether it can sustain this support to prevent a decline towards the psychologically significant $1-$1.20 region, which served as a high-liquidity consolidation zone before its explosive rallies in late 2024 and early 2025. A decisive break below the descending channel would likely lead the market in that direction, as many long-term participants consider $1 to be fair value during corrections, potentially triggering aggressive buying. Concerningly, volume on recent declines is increasing, signaling conviction selling rather than panic-selling, which heightens the probability of a deeper retrace. Momentum indicators also do not yet show a bullish divergence, meaning the downtrend's end is not yet signaled. While a rebound towards the $2.40-$2.60 region is possible if buyers defend the channel's lower boundary, any such bounce would merely be a counter-trend move, not a reversal, unless the price breaks out of the channel and reclaims overhead moving averages.

Despite a swift sell-off, Ethereum's overall trend strength has not truly vanished, a structural fact often overlooked. A notable discrepancy exists between Ethereum’s underlying recovery structure, which has been developing for months, and its sharp short-term downtrend – a divergence that frequently precedes significant reversals. On the chart, ETH has shown a clear bearish trend, breaking sharply below the 50-, 100-, and 200-day moving averages, and effortlessly losing the $3,000 support level. Momentum has evaporated, and volume spikes are almost exclusively sell-side. From a pure trend-following perspective, the situation appears unfavorable, with every rally attempt over the past two months rejected at progressively lower highs. However, this is where the critical discrepancy emerges: while Ethereum's price declines, its long-term structural fundamentals continue to strengthen. Staking is in a continuous sharp uptrend, with more ETH being locked away than ever before, thereby reducing available liquidity during a period of significant capitulation. Although speculative volume has decreased, organic usage remains comparatively stable, indicating that network activity has not collapsed as the price chart might suggest.