Mali's crisis significantly intensified on Tuesday, just a day after Russian paramilitaries completed their withdrawal from the strategic northern city of Kidal. This retreat immediately allowed a coalition of jihadist and Tuareg rebel forces to seize control of the stronghold. The Russian departure followed a series of coordinated attacks across the country, which tragically resulted in the death of Mali's defence minister and targeted areas close to the capital. A senior Malian official expressed strong sentiments to RFI, stating that Russian forces had "betrayed" Bamako, highlighting the profound shift in the security landscape.

Prime Minister Abdoulaye Maïga has attempted to calm the Malian populace after Saturday's extensive offensive. This assault was mounted by jihadist fighters from JNIM, an al Qaeda-linked organization, and Tuareg separatists affiliated with the Azawad Liberation Front (FLA). However, the loss of Kidal, a city historically significant as a symbol of control over Mali's volatile north, combined with Russia's unexpected retreat, has plunged the ruling junta into a severe new political and military predicament. A senior Malian official reiterated to RFI, "The Russians betrayed us in Kidal," specifically after Russia's Africa Corps—the Kremlin-controlled paramilitary group that assumed Wagner's operations in Mali—confirmed its withdrawal.

The Malian official further elaborated that the regional governor had issued a warning to the Russian mercenaries "three days before the attack," but "they did nothing," suggesting that their departure might have been pre-negotiated. Consequently, Malian troops, Russian paramilitaries, and official civilian authorities have all evacuated Kidal and relocated to Gao, the largest city in northern Mali, ceding Kidal entirely to JNIM and the FLA. Reports also indicate that Russian forces may be preparing to withdraw from other positions across the northern region, signifying a broader disengagement.

Saturday's coordinated assault represented one of Mali's gravest security challenges in years. Attacks were meticulously planned, striking Kati, the critical military garrison town near Bamako and a core base of the junta's power, as well as the capital's airport zone and several northern towns, including the long-standing Tuareg stronghold of Kidal. Mali's Defence Minister Sadio Camara, a pivotal figure within the military government and a key architect behind Mali's partnership with Russian mercenaries, was tragically killed during an attack on his residence in Kati, underscoring the severity and reach of the offensive.

Although Russian Africa Corps fighters had been stationed in Kidal, instead of defending the city, they withdrew with their equipment following negotiations with the city's new rulers, later confirming that they had received permission to depart. This withdrawal constitutes a significant reversal, especially since Malian forces, with Russian paramilitary support, had successfully recaptured Kidal as recently as November 2023 after years of Tuareg rebel control. Despite Russia's foreign ministry asserting that operations against insurgents are ongoing, the retreat from Kidal has generated considerable skepticism regarding Moscow's long-term military commitment and effectiveness in Mali.

Prime Minister Maïga addressed the nation on Monday, paying homage to Camara and asserting that the jihadists' objectives had failed. Yet, the sheer scale and synchronized nature of the attacks—which spanned from the outskirts of Bamako to various towns across the vast West African nation—have severely eroded confidence in the junta's overarching security strategy. General Assimi Goïta, the junta leader who assumed power through coups in 2020 and 2021, has maintained public silence since the attacks commenced, intensifying the pervading uncertainty and prompting questions about the military government's resilience, as noted by Jean-Hervé Jézéquel of the International Crisis Group.

While securing Goïta's safety might be a reasonable precaution, his continued absence from the public eye is seen as detrimental, fueling speculation and concerns. Mali's partners in the Alliance of Sahel States (AES), specifically Burkina Faso and Niger, have released a statement of support; however, despite their declared mutual defence pact, they have not visibly intervened militarily. Analysts contend that the offensive demonstrated an unprecedented level of coordination between jihadist and separatist forces, simultaneously exposing profound weaknesses in Mali's military capabilities and the efficacy of its partnership with Russia.

The attacks conclusively proved that JNIM possesses the capability to strike deep within Mali, even in regions previously considered secure. Justyna Gudzowska, executive director of The Sentry, highlighted that this indicates to "every Malian, every regional capital, and every foreign partner that JNIM can operate at will inside the supposedly secure heart of the state." Furthermore, the incidents unveiled critical intelligence failures, especially disheartening after nearly two decades of international military involvement in Mali. Sahel specialist Corinne Dufka noted that despite interventions by US, French, European, African, and Russian partners, jihadist groups have only expanded their areas of operation.