Hungary, under the leadership of its right-wing populist government led by Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, has launched an aggressive, taxpayer-funded campaign utilizing AI-generated content to rally support ahead of upcoming elections. Billboards across the country depict Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and EU officials with outstretched hands, accompanied by the slogan: “Our message to Brussels: We won’t pay!” This messaging, also pervasive on radio, television, and social media, reflects Orbán’s core election strategy: to convince voters that Ukraine, rather than domestic issues like fraying social services or economic stagnation, poses the greatest threat to Hungary.

This tactic is a continuation of Orbán’s past election strategies, which have consistently involved generating fear to mobilize his Fidesz party’s electorate. In 2018, it was fear of migration. In 2022, he spread baseless claims that the opposition would send Hungarian troops to fight in the war in Ukraine. Now, facing an unprecedented challenge from Péter Magyar, a former top Fidesz member and leader of the opposition Tisza party, the anti-Ukraine strategy has escalated significantly. Analysts like Zsuzsanna Végh of the German Marshall Fund note a “significant escalation,” with AI extensively used to propagate false messages and images, such as a campaign video depicting a weeping girl and a father’s execution in war, captioned: “This is only a nightmare now, but Brussels is preparing to make it a reality… Fidesz is the safe choice!” Magyar condemned this as “sickening, unforgivable and deeply outrageous,” calling it “soulless manipulation.”

This domestic political maneuvering has spilled into international relations, creating a major standoff within the European Union. Hungary has refused to approve the latest EU sanctions package against Russia and blocked a crucial €90 billion loan to Ukraine. Orbán justifies these actions by citing alleged disruptions to Hungary’s vital supplies of Russian oil, which pass through the Soviet-era Druzhba pipeline. He has accused Kyiv of “blackmail” and deliberately delaying repairs to the pipeline for political reasons, assertions echoed by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who also criticized the notion of not importing Russian fossil fuels, citing EU exemptions. In contrast, Ukraine maintains that a section of the pipeline was damaged by a Russian drone attack in January, part of Moscow’s relentless campaign against its infrastructure, and has denied intentionally delaying repairs.

Hungary’s stance has provoked widespread exasperation and anger across the EU. Leaders from Poland, Sweden, Estonia, and Lithuania have voiced strong criticism. Poland’s foreign minister, Radosław Sikorski, described it as “shocking,” while Sweden’s Europe minister, Jessica Rosencrantz, accused Orbán of using Ukraine as a “punching bag.” Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal stated that “nobody understands Viktor Orbán’s positions” and that it is illogical to seek European security from Russia’s dictator. Lithuania’s Prime Minister Inga Ruginienė called Orbán’s claims about Ukraine blocking oil transit “nonsense” and emphasized that “when you’re fighting for security, not just for Lithuania, but for whole Europe, to hear such words and decisions, it’s nonsense.” She warned against underestimating Putin’s threat and highlighted Lithuania’s historical experience under Soviet rule, stressing that Russia poses a threat to the entire NATO Alliance.

In an attempt to de-escalate tensions, Orbán has recently softened his tone, proposing a “fact-finding mission” to the Ukrainian section of the Druzhba pipeline to assess the damage. This proposal, supported by Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico, who invited Zelenskyy to discuss the matter, was welcomed by the European Commission as a constructive first step. However, the plan remains in its early stages, with Ukraine’s permission for access being crucial, especially given the dangers of technicians being targeted by Russian strikes in a strategic zone. Ukraine has informed EU experts that it is actively carrying out repair works amidst daily threats, emphasizing its interest in restoring transit as soon as possible.

The standoff over the €90 billion loan is also intertwined with Hungary’s own financial interests. The Commission is reportedly leveraging its approval of Hungary’s €16.2 billion defense spending plan under the European defense programme (SAFE) to pressure Budapest to lift its veto on the Ukraine aid. This broader context fuels concerns among opposition supporters that Orbán’s strategy risks isolating Hungary from other European countries and could lead to renewed Russian oppression. Research from the Policy Solutions institute in Budapest indicates that Orbán has successfully shifted Hungarian public opinion, turning Volodymyr Zelenskyy into one of the most unpopular global politicians in Hungary and framing the conflict as a war between two unpopular Slavic countries, despite Russia and Putin themselves remaining unpopular.

Beyond the immediate dispute, the crisis has ignited broader debates within the EU regarding centralized decision-making, particularly on security, and enhanced cooperation with non-EU allies. Estonian Prime Minister Kristen Michal strongly advocated for Europe to invest more in its own defense, citing Estonia’s commitment of 5.4% of its GDP to defense this year. He also reaffirmed that frozen Russian assets remain "not off the table" as a potential source to aid Ukraine, and argued that a premature peace without firm security guarantees could destabilize Europe. Michal dismissed rhetoric portraying Europe as weak, asserting that adherence to defense commitments would make the continent stronger and uphold its status as a region of "freest nations."

As the Hungarian elections approach, with Péter Magyar’s Tisza party reportedly leading in independent polls, the outcome remains uncertain. The election has become a battle between Orbán’s narrative of external threat and Magyar’s focus on domestic issues like living costs and corruption. Orbán’s vast media empire and resources give him significant power to shape the political agenda, and it remains to be seen whether voters will be swayed by his anti-Ukraine rhetoric, which has effectively damaged Ukraine’s and Zelenskyy’s reputations in Hungary, allowing Orbán to double down on his divisive strategy.