In a critical moment of escalating tensions, key Middle Eastern allies including Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Turkey, and Oman launched a last-minute lobbying campaign to urge then-President Donald Trump against initiating airstrikes on Iran. This concerted effort was driven by profound fears that a military assault by Washington would inevitably lead to a major, intractable conflict that would destabilize the entire region. The warnings about the potential for widespread chaos from these long-standing US partners reportedly played a significant role in persuading Trump on Wednesday evening to delay any immediate military action. Saudi Arabia, for instance, demonstrated its strong reticence by denying the US the use of its airspace for any potential attacks against Iran, underscoring the regional apprehension.

Amidst these high-stakes discussions, diplomatic channels remained active. The Saudi Arabian foreign minister, Prince Faisal bin Farhan, engaged in telephone consultations with his counterparts from Iran, Oman, and Turkey on Thursday, signifying ongoing efforts to de-escalate. Despite its political separation from the Gulf states, primarily due to its continued support for its network of regional proxies, known as the axis of resistance, and its refusal to endorse a two-state solution for Palestine, Iran has also sought to improve relations. Furthermore, disputes over three islands in the Gulf, claimed by the United Arab Emirates and backed by the Gulf Cooperation Council, add to the complexities. Nevertheless, Iran's foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, has actively pursued diplomatic outreach, undertaking a series of visits to Arab capitals that have reportedly led to improved relations, including a historic visit to Bahrain in 2010 and multiple trips to Cairo last year following the severance of diplomatic ties in 2016. The Saudi-Iranian relationship, once considered the most fraught in the Middle East, has been on a recovery trajectory for the past three years, with Araghchi often making a point of being photographed engaging with local culture in the Arab capitals he visits.

Regional powers are acutely aware of Iran's capacity to disrupt vital maritime traffic within the Gulf. In a strategic move, Araghchi has recently attempted to convince Gulf states that Iran poses a lesser threat to global stability than Israel. This argument gained some plausibility after Israel bombed Doha in September, an action reportedly intended to assassinate Hamas negotiators residing in the Qatari capital for nearly a decade. While the Israeli strikes failed to eliminate their primary targets, they reportedly resulted in the deaths of five lower-ranking members of the group. The United States, having not been informed of these strikes in advance, issued a direct apology to Qatar’s emir and subsequently offered new security guarantees for Doha, specifically designed to protect Qatar from any future Israeli attacks. At the time, Qatar publicly accused Israel of actively attempting to sabotage every opportunity for peace in the region. The US special envoy, Steve Witkoff, is a known proponent of the Qatari state's self-appointed, yet often effective, role as a global mediator.

The vulnerability of static American military assets in the region became evident as tensions mounted. The US al-Udeid airbase in Qatar, which stands as its largest military installation in the region, saw key personnel withdrawn during the height of the Wednesday crisis. This withdrawal, prompted by Tehran’s explicit threats to target US bases in the region if attacked, underscored how American land and naval bases, while designed to project power, could simultaneously become significant points of vulnerability. Iran has consistently maintained that the US ordered Israel to cease its 12-day assault on Iranian leadership and nuclear facilities during the summer, a claim made after Iran reportedly struck a US base. Araghchi has further leveraged his diplomatic capital by contacting Arab leaders to articulate Tehran’s rationale behind its recent internal crackdown.

While many of the Arab states deeply resent the interference of Iranian proxy forces in countries such as Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen, few would welcome the precedent of an authoritarian regime in Iran being toppled by popular street protests stemming from declining living standards, potentially leading to a new democratic transition or even the fragmentation of a unified Iranian state. This concern is rooted in their own experiences; for instance, Saudi Arabia recently quelled a rebellion in southern Yemen that could have led to the country's breakup, and the Egyptian military leadership dedicates substantial energy to suppressing calls for human rights reforms within its borders. Reflecting the broader regional desire for resolution, the spokesperson for Qatar’s foreign ministry, Majed al-Ansari, reiterated on Tuesday that “The big challenges in the region – and we are talking about internal and external challenges in different countries – require all of us to return to the negotiating table.” Similarly, the Turkish foreign minister, Hakan Fidan, has explicitly called for dialogue, expressing hope that “the United States and Iran will resolve this issue among themselves – whether through mediators, other actors, or direct dialogue. We are closely following these developments.”