Ghana's economy is projected to achieve a 4.8% GDP growth in 2026, building on a significant turnaround observed in 2025. This momentum is largely attributed to fiscal consolidation implemented under the IMF Extended Credit Facility, favorable commodity prices, and a stable parliamentary majority that ensures policy continuity. The services sector is expected to remain the primary engine of this growth, with financial services, telecommunications, and trade continuing to expand. Analysts from EM Advisory highlight a non-oil GDP growth of 5.0%, underscoring the underlying strength of the productive economy driven by improvements in domestic trade, banking, and ICT services.

While services lead, other sectors are projected to contribute more moderately. Manufacturing growth is anticipated at 5%, constrained by high financing costs and persistent power supply challenges. In stark contrast, the oil and gas sector is expected to contract by a substantial 15.6% in 2026. This decline reflects the natural depletion in mature fields and delays in bringing new production online, further emphasizing the critical role of non-oil sectors in cushioning the overall economy against potential shocks from commodity price volatility.

Beyond traditional services, Ghana's tourism and creative arts sectors offer considerable potential for economic diversification and job creation, especially for the youth, where unemployment exceeds 13%. The recovery of global travel and a heightened interest in cultural experiences, as demonstrated by the 'Year of Return' campaign, present a unique opportunity to capitalize on Ghana’s rich heritage. Strategic investments in air connectivity, hotel infrastructure, and destination marketing could position Ghana as a leading African destination. These sectors can rapidly generate employment across hospitality, transport, content creation, and event management, while also attracting foreign exchange without the inherent volatility associated with commodity exports like gold or cocoa.

The positive outlook for 2026 is bolstered by the remarkable economic performance in 2025. Ghana recorded significant improvements in living standards, including the cedi's first annual appreciation against the US dollar since 1994, a substantial drop in inflation from 23.8% to 5.4%, and over 950,000 individuals lifted out of multidimensional poverty between Q3 2024 and Q3 2025. These gains were significantly supported by commodity windfalls, particularly from gold and cocoa, which bolstered export earnings.

Despite this progress, inflation is projected to climb again in 2026, potentially reaching 11.3% by December, following a historic disinflation in 2025. The previous year's sharp decline was driven by currency appreciation, tight monetary policy, and improved food supply, with food inflation dropping significantly. However, EM Advisory warns that base effects, seasonal trends, and expansionary fiscal policy are likely to push food inflation sharply upwards, from under 5% in early 2026 to over 16% by year-end. Non-food inflation is expected to remain more contained, projected to end the year at 7.3%.

In response to economic conditions, the Bank of Ghana has initiated an easing cycle, with the policy rate anticipated to reach 14% by mid-year. While the Governor has expressed an ambition to lower lending rates to approximately 10% over his tenure, credit costs are expected to remain high due to operational inefficiencies and wide bank spreads. EM Advisory stresses that monetary policy alone is insufficient to maintain price stability. They advocate for supply-side interventions, prioritizing investments in agriculture, storage infrastructure, and transportation, to directly address major contributors to inflation such as food prices, fuel, and utilities.

Following a historic 30% annual gain against the US dollar in 2025, Ghana’s cedi is expected to experience modest depreciation in 2026, projected to trade at GHS 12.0/USD by year-end. The 2025 rally was fueled by elevated gold prices – with gold exports reaching $8.3 billion in the first half alone – strong cocoa earnings, and significant foreign exchange injections by the Bank of Ghana. While gold prices are expected to remain high, the Bank of Ghana is likely to allow gradual weakening to preserve Ghana’s external competitiveness. Gross international reserves remain robust at $13.8 billion, providing 5.7 months of import cover. Nevertheless, the economy’s reliance on a concentrated commodity export base leaves it vulnerable to global price fluctuations, necessitating structural reforms, such as establishing modern gold refineries and implementing traceability mechanisms, to capture more value domestically and enhance resilience.

Ghana’s ambitious GHS 30 billion Big Push Infrastructure Programme is set to commence in 2026, focusing on critical investments in roads, bridges, ports, and logistics corridors. This initiative, building upon gains from fiscal consolidation and the 24-hour economy drive, aims to alleviate congestion, improve trade flows, and attract private investment, thereby enhancing overall competitiveness and reducing business costs. Successful implementation is contingent on strong project appraisal, strict monitoring, and timely fund disbursement to mitigate risks of delays and cost overruns that have plagued past projects.

Sustaining Ghana’s economic momentum beyond the baseline scenario requires meticulous policy execution and comprehensive structural reforms. While fiscal prudence remains central, with a projected primary balance of -1.4% of GDP, the key challenge for 2026 is maintaining this discipline independently of IMF oversight. EM Advisory underscores the necessity of structural reforms, including rationalizing the wage bill, enhancing civil service productivity, and broadening the tax base. The current administration has a unique opportunity, with nearly three years before the next election, to implement these difficult reforms and break Ghana’s historical boom-and-bust economic cycle. Translating stability into tangible, inclusive, and sustained results in 2026 will largely depend on the moderate-paced execution of flagship programs like the Big Push and the 24-hour economy.