The legal landscape surrounding former President Goodluck Jonathan's potential candidacy for the 2027 Nigerian presidential election has been extensively clarified by legal experts and judicial pronouncements. Senior Advocate of Nigeria, Dr. Monday Ubani, asserts that Jonathan remains legally qualified under the 1999 constitution, basing his opinion strictly on constitutional interpretation and judicial precedents, rather than political inclinations.

Dr. Ubani recalled that Jonathan assumed office in 2010 to complete the tenure of the late President Musa Yar'Adua. This ascension was not by election but by the operation of law, specifically Section 146 of the 1999 constitution. His first elected term as president was from 2011 to 2015. Ubani highlighted that as far back as 2015, a court ruling by Justice Oniyangi (Mudashiru) had affirmed Jonathan's eligibility to re-contest, distinguishing his 2010 oath of office as one taken by succession, not by virtue of an election.

A critical aspect of the debate revolves around the Fourth Alteration of the constitution in 2017, which became operational in 2018, introducing provisions like Section 137(3) that could potentially limit re-election bids for those who completed another's tenure. However, Ubani strongly argued that this law cannot be applied retroactively. Citing established Supreme Court authorities, such as the cases of Nwobodo versus Onoh and Afolabi versus Governor Oyo State, he emphasized the legal principle that laws are prospective, not retrospective, unless explicitly stated. He maintained that a law enacted in 2018 cannot strip a person of vested or existing rights that accrued between 2010 and 2015.

Further bolstering Jonathan's eligibility is a previously unpublished judgment delivered by Justice Isah Dashem of the Federal High Court in Yenagoa, Bayelsa State, on May 27, 2022. This judgment, obtained by THISDAY, put to rest the contentious constitutional amendment of Section 137(1)(b) and (3) as it pertains to Jonathan. The suit (FHC/YNG/CS/86/2022) was filed by two All Progressives Congress (APC) members in Bayelsa seeking to disqualify Jonathan from the 2023 presidential election amidst rumors of his potential candidacy for the party.

Justice Dashem's ruling concluded that Jonathan had only been elected to the Office of President on one occasion, specifically in 2011. The court clarified that while elections for President and Vice President are often on a joint ticket, the offices themselves are distinct. Therefore, an individual's election as Vice President is not equivalent to an election as President. The judge also concurred with Jonathan's legal team that Section 137(3), which aims to bar persons who completed another's tenure from contesting twice, did not apply to him. This is because the law was passed in 2018, long after Jonathan had acquired the right to contest and indeed contested in the 2015 general elections. Justice Dashem explicitly stated that the legislature had not expressed any intention for Section 137(3) to have retrospective application, thus its enforceability began from June 7, 2018. The judgment affirmed that Jonathan's right to contest for the presidency accrued and was vested in him on May 29, 2015.

This Federal High Court judgment has not been appealed against and remains subsisting, with the time for appeal having lapsed. This legal certainty has intensified political discussions regarding Jonathan's 2027 prospects, with reports indicating he has been approached by multiple political parties, including the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), and the African Democratic Congress (ADC). Analysts suggest his eligibility for only one more term could make him an attractive candidate, potentially assuaging northern voters' concerns. The judgment also renders moot previous claims by figures like Festus Keyamo, who had suggested that fielding Jonathan could jeopardize a party's chances due to the constitutional amendment.

Dr. Ubani reiterated that the Nigerian judiciary respects judicial precedents and has consistently rejected attempts to apply laws retroactively, assuring that the courts are unlikely to deviate from settled principles for political reasons. He concluded that multiple judicial pronouncements have confirmed Jonathan's eligibility, leaving no constitutional gap to disqualify him from the 2027 election.