Bitcoin's price experienced significant volatility this week, culminating in a rebound to $103,500 today after starting the day near $100,000 and reaching highs of $103,859. This upward movement followed a turbulent period earlier in the week when Bitcoin plunged below $100,000 on November 4 for the first time since June, hitting a low of $99,070. This dip marked a more than 20% decline from its October high of $126,000, technically signaling the entry into a bear phase.

The recent sell-off was attributed to a confluence of factors, including broader macro pressures, significant political headlines, and a diminishing risk appetite among investors. Contributing to the downturn were the massive liquidation events observed in October, a series of reported hacks, and escalating trade tensions with China. Furthermore, the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance played a crucial role, with a modest rate cut being announced alongside signals that further cuts might not be forthcoming, which negatively impacted market sentiment.

During the Fed's most recent press conference, Chairman Jerome Powell explicitly stated that December's rate cuts were not guaranteed. This declaration immediately triggered a sharp reaction in Bitcoin's price, which plunged to $109,000 on the day and continued to bleed into the current week. Powell also noted that inflation, excluding the impact of tariffs, was "not so far" from the central bank's 2% target, but underscored that policymakers had "not made a decision about December" and held "strongly differing views" during their meeting. A strengthening U.S. dollar further exacerbated the pressure on cryptocurrency prices, with the broader crypto market reacting similarly to Bitcoin.

From a technical analysis perspective, Bitcoin has been struggling around its 200-day moving average, with crucial support identified near $96,000, according to data from Bitcoin Magazine Pro. Up to today, Bitcoin has been largely confined to a tight support corridor between $100,000 and $102,000, while facing notable resistance in the $106,000–$114,000 range. Short-term buyers appear to have exhausted their momentum, and on-chain data highlights friction between capitulating short-term holders, particularly at the $107,000–$110,000 levels, and long-term holders who are actively defending the $95,000–$96,000 price points.

Despite the prevailing volatility, several major institutions maintain a bullish outlook. JPMorgan, for instance, remains optimistic, forecasting a potential rise to $170,000 within the next 6–12 months. This projection is underpinned by arguments of Bitcoin's undervaluation relative to gold and the perceived conclusion of heavy deleveraging in the market. Furthermore, some prominent bulls, including Michael Saylor’s firm, have continued to "buy the dip," signaling a cautious yet persistent confidence in Bitcoin's long-term prospects.

Institutional investment flows also provide mixed signals but show tentative accumulation. After a period of six consecutive days of withdrawals from U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs, totaling $2.05 billion, the market saw a notable reversal with $240 million in inflows. These inflows were primarily led by major players like BlackRock and Fidelity. Analysis of whale activity suggests profit-taking rather than widespread panic selling, with over 319,000 BTC, mostly held for six to twelve months, being reactivated in the past month.

However, some prominent crypto investors have adjusted their long-term forecasts. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest recently lowered its 2030 Bitcoin price forecast from $1.5 million to $1.2 million. This revision was attributed to stablecoins increasingly adopting Bitcoin's transactional role, although Wood reaffirmed Bitcoin's enduring potential as "digital gold." Similarly, Galaxy Digital revised its year-end Bitcoin target downward, from $185,000 to $120,000, citing factors such as whale selling, rotations into other assets, and leveraged liquidations. Galaxy Digital described the current market phase as Bitcoin entering a "maturity era."