Despite US President Donald Trump's long-standing stance as a climate denier and oil industry ally, famously promoting an "drill, baby, drill" energy policy, his administration's actions have inadvertently accelerated the global transition from fossil fuels to clean energy and electric vehicles (EVs). A significant catalyst for this shift occurred in late February, when a conflict between the US, Israel, and Iran led Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, causing the largest oil supply disruption in history. This crisis, ironically for Trump and his donors, may prove to be an irreversible tipping point for clean energy.

For years, fossil fuel proponents championed oil, gas, and coal as "reliable" energy sources. However, the recent events have dramatically reversed this narrative, rendering fossil fuels expensive and unreliable, while renewables are increasingly seen as cheap, reliable, and secure. In a historic move, more than 50 nations are scheduled to convene in Colombia next week to deliberate on strategies to reduce and ultimately end their dependence on coal, oil, and gas. Although this ground-breaking conference was planned prior to the Iran conflict, the current energy crisis has significantly heightened its urgency and stakes.

The impact of the oil crisis is profound and far-reaching. Iran's closure of the narrow Strait of Hormuz not only halted oil tankers but also resulted in damage to over 60 gas and oil sites during the conflict. Even if a lasting ceasefire is achieved, the repercussions are expected to persist for months and years. Approximately 80% of the crude oil trapped by the closure was bound for the Asia-Pacific region. Facing dwindling supplies, governments in this region are implementing emergency measures such as employee furloughs, bans on government travel, fuel rationing, and reduced school hours. The situation is particularly dire for Pacific island nations, many of which rely on diesel for power generation. Their leaders have declared a regional emergency, as fuel import bills, already a substantial burden, are projected to surge by A$933 million in Fiji alone, nearly triple its healthcare budget. These nations were already exploring switches to local renewables due to high fuel costs.

When energy supplies are disrupted, leaders typically consider three main options: securing alternate supplies, reducing consumption, or transitioning to alternative sources. In the immediate short term, countries prioritize shoring up existing supply chains, as exemplified by Australian Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's recent visit to Malaysia. Efforts to reduce energy use can also have enduring effects. The Middle East oil shocks of the 1970s, which saw oil prices triple and then double again, prompted authorities to enhance energy productivity. This led to a peak in the world's final oil demand per capita in 1979, a level never since surpassed.

A critical distinction between the current crisis and that of half a century ago is the readiness of fossil fuel alternatives. Since the 1970s, the cost of solar panels has plummeted by 99.9%, wind power by 91% since 1984, and battery prices by 99% since 1991. This makes switching to these alternatives economically viable for many nations today. For instance, the European Union is accelerating electrification after its fossil fuel bill increased by over $36 billion since February. France has doubled state aid to assist households in transitioning to EVs and electrifying home heating. Import-dependent South Korea, which receives 70% of its crude oil through the Strait of Hormuz, now plans to double its renewables capacity within four years.

This year's oil shock is signaling an unplanned social tipping point – a threshold beyond which self-propelling change drives systems from one state to another. While climate scientists warn of climate tipping points that amplify warming, social scientists identify positive tipping points involving collective actions that rapidly accelerate climate action. The surging interest in EVs is a prime example. In Australia, petrol prices jumped almost 50% in March, and diesel more than 70%. Consequently, new EV sales have reached an all-time high, with secondhand EV sales more than doubling last month. Australia's 1.3 million hybrid and battery electric vehicles currently prevent the consumption of nearly 15 million liters of petrol and diesel weekly. The global movement towards electric transport is evident, with most new Chinese cars being battery-powered and battery electric vehicles outselling petrol cars for the first time in Europe in January.

The routine combustion of coal, oil, and gas is the primary driver of the climate crisis. Despite the world's highest court clarifying nations' obligations to cease burning fossil fuels last year, these fuels have been largely absent from 30 years of global climate negotiations, partly due to obstruction by major fossil fuel exporters and lobbyists. Frustrated by this slow progress, a coalition of nations has bypassed traditional global climate talks to directly address the phase-out of fossil fuels. The inaugural summit will take place next week in Santa Marta, Colombia. Over 50 nations will discuss the potential for a standalone treaty to manage the fossil-fuel phase-out while simultaneously safeguarding workers and financial systems. Colombian Environment Minister Irene Vélez Torres noted that the timing is optimal, as the oil crisis intensely focuses global attention on fossil fuel dependency. If next week's summit generates substantial momentum for weaning off fossil fuels amidst the current energy crisis, it could be remembered as a pivotal social tipping point, inspiring widespread adoption beyond early movers.