Oil Markets Brace: Ukraine Claims Devastating New Strike on Russian Refinery

Ukraine announced it conducted an overnight attack on the Kirishi oil refinery, also known as Kinef, located in Russia’s Leningrad region. This marks the second time in a month that Kyiv has targeted the facility, continuing its strategy of pressuring Russian energy infrastructure. Ukraine’s General Staff stated on social media that “The Defense Forces of Ukraine delivered a strike at” the refinery, resulting in explosions and a fire, with verification of the strike’s results currently underway. Independent confirmation of Ukraine’s claim was not immediately available.
The Kinef refinery, owned by Surgutneftegas, stands as one of Russia’s largest energy facilities, boasting an annual processing capacity exceeding 20 million tons. It is strategically situated approximately 100 kilometers southeast of St. Petersburg and more than 800 kilometers north of the Ukrainian border. Regional governor Alexander Drozdenko confirmed on Telegram that the city of Kirishi was targeted by seven drones overnight, reporting a fire in an industrial zone without explicitly identifying the refinery as the target.
The Kirishi refinery was previously attacked on September 14, an incident that led to the shutdown of a primary processing unit with a capacity of roughly 150,000 barrels per day. At the time, repairs were estimated to take approximately one month. Ukraine has intensified its assaults on Russian refineries since August, aiming to diminish the energy revenues that fund the Kremlin’s war efforts and to restrict fuel supplies reaching the front lines.
Over the past two months, Ukraine has reportedly targeted at least 15 refineries across the European part of Russia. Several of these drone assaults have been successful, causing Russian refinery runs to fall below 5 million barrels per day, according to estimates from JPMorgan Chase & Co. This reduction signifies a curtailment of about 500,000 barrels per day of processing capacity, based on historical data, which has exacerbated a domestic fuel crunch within Russia.
In response to the escalating fuel shortages, the Russian government has imposed a ban on diesel exports for resellers, effective until the end of this year. Additionally, a comprehensive ban on gasoline sales abroad has been extended until the end of 2025. The Kinef refinery is not only a crucial supplier to the domestic market but also one of Russia’s primary exporters. The ongoing attacks further complicate Russia’s diminishing capacity to reroute its crude oil to the global market.
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