The NBA’s regular-season MVP race has tightened as injured stars approach the league’s participation threshold, reshaping expectations ahead of the season’s final stretch. The latest straw poll shows Shai Gilgeous-Alexander leading the vote if he remains eligible.

At the center of the debate is the 65-game eligibility requirement, which mandates that players must appear in at least 65 contests to qualify for MVP and other major honors, according to the NBA’s updated rules.

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander remains the betting favorite, but missed games have made his candidacy precarious this season, as reflected in current MVP odds.

The Oklahoma City Thunder guard has missed significant time with an abdominal strain and must now play enough of the remaining schedule to stay above the eligibility threshold.

Nikola Jokic, a multiple-time MVP winner, is in an even tighter spot after appearing in just enough games to stay near the cutoff. If Jokic sits out just two more games, he would fall below the minimum requirement and become ineligible to win MVP honors.

This looming eligibility risk has shifted betting attention toward players who are healthy and likely to meet the participation rule.

Detroit Pistons guard Cade Cunningham has emerged as a major beneficiary, with his MVP odds shortening as bettors factor in his sustained availability.

Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown has also seen shifts in his futures line, reflecting the market’s changing view of contenders.

San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama remains popular with some bettors but is also nearing the eligibility threshold after missing several games.

Additional players drawing interest in the extended MVP conversation include Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell and Minnesota Timberwolves star Anthony Edwards based on recent futures updates.

Despite volatility in betting markets, media sentiment — reflected in the most recent NBA MVP straw poll results — still favors Gilgeous-Alexander, provided he reaches the qualification criteria.

As the regular season winds down, availability — not just pure performance — may be the deciding factor in who ultimately claims the league’s most prestigious individual honor.