Andy Burnham, the popular Mayor of Greater Manchester, has once again been at the centre of speculation regarding a potential return to Westminster and a challenge for the Labour Party leadership. Despite his repeated assertions that he is merely "launching a debate" and cannot run for leader without being an MP, his actions and constant high public profile, particularly during the Labour Party conference in Liverpool, have only intensified these rumours. Dubbed the "King of the North," Burnham maintains significant personal popularity, a factor that continues to fuel the narrative of his leadership ambitions.

During the Liverpool conference, Burnham's charismatic presence was undeniable. He engaged with the public in a manner reminiscent of a prospective national leader, posing for numerous selfies with fans and delegates and even taking a snap with a toddler and his mother, albeit stopping short of the traditional "baby kiss." His genuine connection with Liverpudlians was evident, with cabbies offering encouragement and delegates expressing "solidarity." This popularity stems not only from his role as mayor but also from his deep ties to Merseyside, being an Evertonian born in Liverpool and a long-standing advocate for the Hillsborough families. He even took time off to watch Everton play during the conference, further solidifying his local appeal. This widespread affection was also visible in queues for his part-manifesto, part-memoir "Head North."

However, the path for Burnham's perceived leadership bid is fraught with significant hurdles. The most immediate challenge is his status as Mayor rather than an MP. While he has stated this precludes him from running for leader, it has led to intense speculation about which existing Labour MP might step aside to create a vacancy for him. Initial rumours centred on Gorton and Denton MP Andrew Gwynne, who has since ruled out resigning, and Blackley and Middleton South MP Graham Stringer, whose close associates dismissed the idea. The latest whispers suggest a St Helens seat, with proponents noting its strategic location between Manchester and Liverpool. Marie Rimmer, the 78-year-old MP for St Helens South and Whiston, has been mentioned, though there is no indication she has discussed standing down with Burnham. Concerns have also been raised about Labour's ability to win a by-election, especially with Reform leading in national polls, though Burnham's supporters believe he stands a strong chance in the North West.

The most formidable obstacle, according to party insiders, is not winning a by-election but securing a candidacy. Sir Keir Starmer and his allies exert a firm grip over Labour's National Executive Committee (NEC), which controls the candidate selection process. Many within the party believe the NEC would block Burnham from standing, citing potential reasons such as the risk of losing a Greater Manchester mayoral by-election should he be elected as an MP, or his public criticisms of Starmer, which could be construed as disloyalty. Despite his close friend, Manchester Central MP Lucy Powell, holding a place on the NEC, her influence is unlikely to be sufficient to sway Starmer's loyalists. Even if he navigated these challenges, Burnham would still require the support of enough Labour MPs to trigger a leadership contest, a scenario few in the party believe will materialise, despite his popularity among party members.

Burnham's approach to his ambitions is often described as a "show-a-bit-of-ankle," subtly hinting at his aspirations without explicitly declaring them. He strategically kept a low profile during Starmer's leader's speech to avoid creating a distraction, choosing instead to record a Guardian podcast. This carefully managed image contrasts with the dismissive view from Starmer's allies, who often brand him "all hat and no cattle." Even sartorial choices became a point of subtle comparison, with references to the Communication Workers' Union embracing a "Mancunian look" with bucket hats, and observations on Starmer's "Dadidas" trainers versus Burnham's "trusty Gazelles," echoing past political fashion faux pas like Rishi Sunak's Adidas Sambas incident. Ultimately, while Andy Burnham's popularity and aspirations are widely acknowledged, his path back to national politics and a potential leadership challenge remains largely constrained by the internal dynamics and gatekeepers of the Labour Party.