The Labour Party is facing significant electoral headwinds, with new polling data revealing a sharp decline in support among British Muslim voters and a broader electoral fragmentation in London. These findings suggest a challenging political landscape ahead for Keir Starmer's party.

A damning new poll by the Policy Exchange think tank indicates a substantial drain of the Muslim vote away from Labour, primarily fueled by anger over the handling of the Israel/Hamas war. Three in five British Muslim voters would consider backing a pro-Gaza independent candidate to prevent Labour winning, while almost half would consider supporting Zack Polanski's Green Party to send a message to the Government. Labour's previously staunch support from Muslims has collapsed since 2019, when it commanded 80% of the community's votes under Jeremy Corbyn. Ahead of the 2024 General Election, national backing was estimated to have fallen by 20%, with even steeper declines in some constituencies. The February Gorton and Denton by-election, in an area with a 28% Muslim population, served as a crucial warning, where the Green Party, under its avowedly pro-Palestine leadership, surged to a surprise victory with a 26.4% swing. The Greens are now attracting 27% support among Muslim voters, 10 points higher than their general election polling average. Attempts by Keir Starmer to 'pander' to Muslim voters, such as refusing to join US-Israeli attacks on Iran, appear to have failed to reverse this decline.

The Policy Exchange research also uncovered several troubling insights into the views within parts of the British Muslim community. The Israel-Gaza conflict is five times more likely to determine the vote for Muslims (one in four) compared to the average Briton (5%). The survey found 25% of British Muslims hold a favourable view of Hamas, while more hold a favourable opinion of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps than an unfavourable one. Furthermore, one in four Muslim voters believe violence can be a legitimate response to the burning of the Qur'an or creating an image of Muhammad, a rate 2.5 times higher than the public at large. Concerning levels of antisemitic conspiratorial beliefs were also reported, with 45% believing Jews have too much power over the media and 39% over Parliament. Some 21% admitted to feeling 'unfavourably' towards Jewish people, nearly double the wider electorate's figure. Dr. Rakib Ehsan, lead author of Policy Exchange's report 'Understanding Islamopopulism', warned that Labour is set to be