The US-Israeli conflict in Iran, initiated with strikes on February 28, has rapidly escalated into a widespread regional crisis, significantly impacting global energy markets and supply chains. Data from the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air (CREA) indicates that Russia's oil and fossil fuel earnings have notably increased since the start of the conflict, with Moscow pocketing approximately €372 million daily from oil exports in the first 15 days of March, a 14% rise from February. Overall fossil fuel exports generated €7.7 billion in the same period, equivalent to €513 million daily, up from €472 million.

Global oil prices, including Brent crude, surged dramatically following joint US-Israeli strikes, exceeding $119 (€103) a barrel. This surge directly translates into higher revenues for major oil-exporting nations like Russia. Despite European leaders pushing for stricter measures, the US Treasury issued a temporary 30-day waiver on the purchase of Russian oil already at sea, a move aimed at stabilizing global energy markets and keeping prices low. This decision also allowed India to continue purchasing Russian oil, with India and China collectively accounting for roughly three-quarters of Russia's oil revenues, India alone buying around €1.3 billion worth of Russian fossil fuels in the first half of March.

The conflict has exposed significant geopolitical divides, particularly across the Atlantic. While European leaders, including Ursula von der Leyen, Friedrich Merz, and Emmanuel Macron, remain steadfast in maintaining strict sanctions against Moscow, Hungary's Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has called for their suspension, citing the threat of skyrocketing energy prices. Europe has worked to reduce its reliance on Russian energy since 2022, though the EU still purchases about €50 million daily in Russian fossil fuels, predominantly pipeline gas exempt from sanctions, a substantial drop from 2021 levels.

Oman's Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi offered a scathing critique of the events leading to the war, describing it as a