In a dramatic escalation of long-standing tensions, United States President Donald Trump announced the capture of Venezuela’s dictator, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, Cilia Flores, following a pre-dawn assault on Caracas and its surrounding regions. Trump hailed the operation as “brilliant,” executed with “a lot of good planning and a lot of great, great troops and great people.” CBS News reported that Maduro was apprehended by members of the elite Delta Force, the same unit responsible for the killing of Islamic State leader Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi in 2019. This unprecedented move marks a significant turn in the US pressure campaign against the South American nation.

The assault, which commenced in the early hours of Saturday, January 3, saw explosions rock the Venezuelan capital, Caracas, and other states including Miranda, La Guaira, and Aragua. Eyewitnesses reported smoke rising from key military installations, including the La Carlota military airfield and the Fuerte Tiuna military base, where Maduro was believed to reside, as well as the Higuerote airport to the east. Venezuela’s government swiftly accused the US of launching a series of attacks against civilian and military targets, denouncing it as an act of “military aggression” that risked plunging Latin America into chaos. Vice-president Delcy Rodríguez, a close ally of Maduro, appeared to confirm the capture but demanded immediate “proof of life” for the couple, accusing the US of “murdering humble and innocent Venezuelan men and women.”

Venezuela’s defense minister, Vladimir Padrino López, issued a defiant online video, condemning the US action as a “deplorable” and “criminal” regime change operation. He declared it the “greatest outrage the country has ever suffered,” with “barbaric” invading forces desecrating “sacred land.” Padrino López called on Venezuelan citizens and soldiers to unite and resist the foreign “invasion,” vowing to form an “indestructible wall of resistance.” Neighbouring Colombia’s President Gustavo Petro corroborated the attacks, stating on X that Caracas was being “bombarded with missiles” and calling for an immediate emergency session of the UN Security Council.

The capture and bombardment are the culmination of an intense, five-month US pressure campaign against the Maduro regime. Since August, the US had amassed a massive military presence off Venezuela’s northern coast, conducting deadly airstrikes on alleged “narco boats” in the Caribbean and Pacific, which human rights groups claim have killed at least 110 people and could constitute war crimes. The US also seized sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers and imposed a blockade on others, aiming to choke the country’s economy. Trump’s administration had declared Venezuelan gangs, such as Tren de Aragua, as terrorist organizations and in July, a $50 million bounty was placed on Maduro’s head, accusing him of being one of the world’s largest narco-traffickers. The US Attorney General, Pam Bondi, confirmed that Maduro and Flores would face criminal charges in New York based on a 2020 indictment alleging their involvement in narco-terrorism. Secretary of State Marco Rubio reiterated that Maduro was “under indictment for pushing drugs in the United States.” Trump openly stated that the US would be “strongly involved” in Venezuela’s oil industry going forward, with Venezuela’s government itself accusing the US of seeking to seize control of its strategic oil and mineral resources.

The strained relationship between the US and Venezuela has deep historical roots, dating back to Hugo Chávez’s presidency in 1999. Chávez, a self-professed socialist and anti-imperialist, frequently challenged US foreign policy, aligning with countries like Cuba and Iran and accusing the US of backing a 2002 coup attempt. Under Maduro’s leadership since 2013, the country has become increasingly authoritarian, with the UN estimating over 20,000 extrajudicial executions by 2019 and a severe erosion of key institutions. The US has consistently deemed Maduro’s government illegitimate, recognizing Juan Guaidó as Venezuela’s president in 2019. Despite a purported landslide defeat in the July 2024 presidential election to opposition candidate Edmundo González, Maduro clung to power through a fierce crackdown. Adding to the geopolitical context, the Trump administration in early December published the “Trump corollary,” a doctrine asserting US control over the Western Hemisphere politically, economically, commercially, and militarily, explicitly allowing the use of military force to gain access to energy and mineral resources.

The international community reacted with a mixture of condemnation, concern, and cautious observation. Neighbouring Colombia, having mobilized its armed forces to the border due to concerns over a potential “massive influx” of refugees, explicitly rejected the aggression against Venezuela’s sovereignty. Brazil’s President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva deemed the US actions an “unacceptable line,” a “grave affront to Venezuela’s sovereignty,” and a “dangerous precedent.” Cuba’s President Miguel Díaz-Canel denounced the “criminal attack” as “state terrorism.” Russia demanded immediate clarification and called it an “unacceptable violation of sovereignty,” while Iran and Guyana also voiced objections and grave concern respectively. Conversely, Argentina’s President Javier Milei, a Trump ally, exclaimed, “Liberty advances! Long live liberty!”

European nations largely called for de-escalation and respect for international law. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer clarified that the UK was “not involved in any way,” stressing the need to establish facts and uphold international law, while focusing on British nationals in Venezuela. Opposition figures in the UK, like Sir Ed Davey, condemned the action as “illegal,” fearing it could embolden other world leaders. Spain offered to mediate, urging moderation, and the EU Vice-President Kaja Kallas echoed calls for restraint, acknowledging Maduro’s lack of legitimacy but emphasizing a peaceful transition. Germany and Italy also expressed concern and were monitoring the situation closely.

The future of Venezuela’s ruling regime remains highly uncertain. While Maduro has been captured, Venezuelan institutions and the military appear largely intact. Defense Minister Padrino López’s vow of an ongoing “fight for freedom” suggests continued resistance. Experts like Dr. Carlos Solar note that the regime might adapt, with Chavismo potentially continuing under new leadership, as it did after Hugo Chávez’s death. Dr. Christopher Sabatini highlighted the unlikelihood of a full military invasion due to US public opposition and the potential for a War Powers Act vote in Congress. Both experts suggested that even with regime change, sustained US engagement would be necessary, with simulations predicting prolonged chaos, refugee crises, and rival factions vying for control. Trump himself stated that the US would be making decisions on Venezuela’s future, considering María Corina Machado as a potential leader but confirming the Venezuelan Vice-President was in charge for now. The audacious operation has irrevocably altered the political landscape of Venezuela and the broader Latin American region, leaving the world to watch what unfolds next.