The Middle East remains in a state of precarious instability following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, which has been almost immediately undermined by continued hostilities and deep disagreements over its terms. Announced by US President Donald Trump, the truce was intended to halt attacks and facilitate diplomatic talks in Pakistan. However, the fragile peace began to unravel as Israel intensified its bombing campaign against Lebanon, claiming these actions were not covered by the ceasefire, a stance fiercely contested by Iran, Pakistan, and various international actors, including the UK.

A central point of contention revolves around the Strait of Hormuz, a critical waterway for global oil, gas, and fertilizer supplies. Under Iran's tight control since the February 28 US-Israeli strikes, the Strait's closure crippled supply chains and sent energy prices soaring worldwide. The European Commission firmly rejected any attempts by Iran or the United States to charge vessels for transit, citing international law's provision for freedom of navigation. A Commission spokesperson emphasized that the Strait, like any other maritime lane, is a public good, asserting that "no payment or toll whatsoever" should be imposed and that "freedom of navigation must be restored."

Despite this international consensus, both Iran and the US had proposed controversial fee systems. President Trump had initially suggested a "joint venture" with Tehran to impose a pay-to-pass system, an idea his press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, stated would "continue to be discussed" while stressing the immediate priority of reopening the lane without limitations. Iran, for its part, reportedly implemented a new system charging $1 per oil barrel, payable in Chinese yuan or cryptocurrency, thereby bypassing Western financial oversight. Brussels deemed both proposals unacceptable as they contravene the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS), which forbids charging for simple transit, allowing fees only for specific services like port access. Although neither the US nor Iran has ratified UNCLOS, its rules are recognized as customary international law. The Commission, however, left the decision to pay the fee to affected private companies and ship-owners, advising them to consider their "various interests."

The ceasefire's validity, particularly concerning Lebanon, has become a major flashpoint. The US and Israel maintained that the ceasefire did not include Lebanon, where Israel's Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu launched a significant ground and air invasion. This perspective was echoed by US Vice President JD Vance, who attributed Iran's belief that Lebanon was included to a "legitimate misunderstanding." Conversely, Iran and mediators like Pakistan insisted that the peace plan encompassed a "complete cessation of war in Iran, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen." On Wednesday, Israel launched massive strikes against Lebanon, killing hundreds and hitting over 100 Hezbollah sites, which Iran immediately deemed a violation of its interpretation of the 10-point plan.

Internationally, there has been widespread condemnation of Israel's continued actions in Lebanon. UK Labour leader Keir Starmer, on a visit to the Middle East, asserted that Israel's attacks "shouldn’t be happening" and called for them to stop, dismissing the "technical" argument about the ceasefire's scope as a matter of "principles." Foreign Secretary Yvette Cooper and Defence Secretary John Healey also warned against the escalation and advocated for Lebanon's inclusion in the ceasefire. Green Party leader Zack Polanski went further, demanding that Britain sever ties with Israel and sacrifice £6.2 billion in trade links, describing Israel as a "rogue state" committing "terror acts" and calling for robust sanctions. These stances highlight a widening divergence between the UK and Trump's US over the conflict's aftermath.

Domestically in Iran, thousands gathered to commemorate the death of former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, who died in the February 28 US-Israeli attack. Rallies across the country marked the 40-day mourning period, a significant Islamic rite. Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian participated in the Tehran tribute. Some attendees viewed the ceasefire agreement as a "victory" for the regime, a sentiment echoed by both Trump and Iran, who each claimed "total and complete victory" despite immediate disagreements over terms. However, many Iranians expressed skepticism about the ongoing negotiations in Pakistan, accusing the Americans of bad faith and urging officials not to be "fooled by the empty promises of hypocritical countries." Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, wounded in the initial strike, has yet to appear publicly since succeeding his father in early March.

The war has also had significant economic repercussions globally, particularly on fuel prices. In the UK, drivers have been "hammered" by an extra £1 billion at the pumps due to the Iran war and Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. An Ipsos poll revealed 68 percent of Britons supported scrapping Labour's planned 5p a litre fuel duty hike, set for September. Public concern about rising fuel prices and potential shortages reached a critical threshold, with many supporting government intervention like price caps. While other European countries like Spain, Portugal, Sweden, Croatia, Greece, Austria, and Germany introduced measures to alleviate fuel costs, the UK Labour party has refused to cut fuel taxes. There are hopes that if the US-Iran ceasefire holds and the Strait of Hormuz remains open, prices could fall, though any reduction at the pumps would likely see a delay of several weeks or months.

American public opinion on the ceasefire is cautiously optimistic but deeply skeptical. A Daily Mail/JL Partners poll indicated 33 percent of voters viewed the deal as good, while 18 percent saw it as bad, with "relieved" being the dominant emotional response. However, only one in four Americans believed the ceasefire would hold, with 54 percent expecting its collapse. Scrutiny also focused on Iran's decision to charge fees in the Strait of Hormuz; despite concerns, 43 percent of Americans felt the US should accept the fee to preserve the ceasefire, compared to 32 percent who opposed it.

Critics have widely condemned President Trump's handling of the conflict, characterizing it as a "misguided war of choice" initiated without clear strategy or goals. His initial belief in a brief war leading to a popular uprising proved unfounded, and the claim of "total and complete regime change" after Khamenei's death was contradicted by the succession of his more hawkish son and the increased power of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. A significant concession appears to be Iran's continued control over the Strait of Hormuz, a power Tehran did not hold before the war, which critics argue undermines US allies and global oil prices. The idea of the US sharing toll revenue, or Trump's sons involvement in cryptocurrency payments, also drew scrutiny. The primary goal of reopening the Strait to free flow has not been achieved, and Iran's continued control is seen as a major strategic victory for Tehran, potentially outweighing its internal destruction from US bombs. The path forward remains unclear, with negotiations dragging on, leaving the global economy and allies in uneasy suspension, and the full costs of the war yet to be assessed.