Sanity Africa, a prominent Pan-African civil society organisation known for its accurate political predictions, including the recent victory forecast for Bernard Baidoo of the National Democratic Congress (NDC) in the Akwatia by-election, has unveiled the findings of its Phase Two survey on the New Patriotic Party (NPP) presidential primaries. This comprehensive report indicates a significant shift in the internal party landscape as the NPP prepares for the January 2026 general elections.

According to the abridged October 2025 report, Kennedy Ohene Agyapong, widely recognised as Ken and a former Member of Parliament for Assin Central, has solidified his position as the leading contender among NPP delegates. He now commands 53.1% of voting intentions, marking a 1.7 percentage point increase from the Phase One survey conducted in July. Following him is Dr. Mahamudu Bawumia (DMB), the former Vice President and 2024 Flagbearer, whose support stands at 39.0%, reflecting a 3.2-point decline.

Other key contenders in the race include Dr. Bryan Acheampong, who has seen a notable rise to 5.0% (up 1.9 points), Dr. Yaw Osei Adutwum at 2.0% (down 1.0 point), and Ing. Kwabena A. Agyepong, who has also experienced a modest increase to 0.9% (rising from 0.3%). These figures highlight the dynamic nature of the primaries as candidates intensify their campaigns.

The survey, conducted between July and October 2025, meticulously sampled 15,000 delegates from an estimated 218,000 in the expanded voter album across all 276 constituencies in Ghana. It boasts a high confidence level of 99% with a ±5% margin of error, underscoring the robustness of its methodology.

Regionally, Kennedy Agyapong demonstrates broad appeal, leading in 10 of Ghana's 16 regions. This includes NPP strongholds such as Ashanti (54.8%), Central (69.0%), and Eastern (54.8%). Dr. Bawumia, however, maintains a crucial advantage in six regions, particularly in the northern parts of the country, where he holds sway in North East (70.0%) and Upper West (60.2%).

The report also points to highly competitive races in Bono East, Savannah, and Upper East, where the margins between candidates remain slim. Significant regional shifts observed include Dr. Bawumia widening his lead in the North East Region from 51.6% to 70.0%, while Ken Agyapong strengthened his position in Volta (50.8%) and Bono (53.0%). Dr. Bryan Acheampong registered substantial gains in his home region of Eastern, where his support surged to 21.7%.

Sanity Africa attributes these evolving delegate sentiments to various factors, including the effectiveness of campaign strategies, regional dynamics, and candidate engagement. While the organisation notes that Kennedy Agyapong currently holds the upper hand and could emerge as the NPP's presidential candidate if current trends persist, it cautions that the contest remains fluid. Endorsements, targeted campaign messaging, and grassroots mobilisation are expected to play critical roles in shaping the final outcome.

With the release of Phase Three of the survey scheduled for January 2026, Sanity Africa concludes that Kennedy Agyapong may be the candidate to beat, but the race for the NPP's presidential slot is far from over.