EU On Brink Of Trade War With China: EPP Boss Weber Warns Of Autumn Conflict

The European Union is bracing for a period of potential conflict with Beijing, as Manfred Weber, chairman of the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP), issued a stark warning that unless the EU and China reach an agreement to reduce trading imbalances by October, a confrontational phase is inevitable. This sentiment was echoed by the EU’s trade chief, Maroš Šefčovič, who also stressed the urgency of addressing the ballooning trade deficit and the impact of Chinese industrial overcapacity on European industries. Weber advocated for a “fundamentally changed” approach to China, emphasizing the need for fair and level playing fields in trade.

In a related move to curb global overcapacity from entering the EU market, new steel quotas and tariffs have come into force. Of the 18.3 million tonnes of tariff-free quotas, half (9.15 million tonnes) will be exclusively allocated to trading partners with free trade agreements, including India, the UK, and Switzerland. The remaining 9.15 million tonnes will be available for other foreign countries, specifically targeting China, which is identified as the primary source of the global steel surplus. Beyond these quotas, steel imports into the EU will face a 50% tariff, a protectionist measure driven by industry concerns over job losses and reduced production capacities within the bloc.

Another significant change impacting European commerce is the introduction of a flat €3 customs duty on low-value e-commerce imports, specifically for goods valued under €150. Previously exempt, this temporary measure now applies to small parcels primarily entering the bloc through online shopping platforms such as Temu, SHEIN, and AliExpress. This initiative aims to tackle what the European Council describes as “unfair competition” for European retailers, alongside addressing concerns about unsafe products, fraud, and the environmental implications of vast volumes of cheap, predominantly Chinese, imports. The EU annually receives over two billion such packages, with a significant portion entering with misdeclared values or unverified safety profiles.

As these critical trade policies take effect, Ireland assumes the rotating six-month presidency of the EU Council, succeeding Cyprus. This marks the eighth time the nation, which joined the bloc in 1972, has undertaken the demanding role of an “honest broker.” Operating under the Gaelic slogan of “Ní neart go cur le chéile” (“Strength with unity”), Ireland is tasked with navigating negotiations among the 26 member states and forging delicate compromises. The central importance of Ukraine to Dublin’s agenda is underscored by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Ireland to join the opening ceremony at Dublin Castle. However, Ireland’s presidency faces scrutiny over its alumina sales to Russia, prompting a government probe and a commitment to share findings with the European Commission, raising the potential for a difficult choice between sanctions and protecting local jobs.

Concurrently, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is undertaking a diplomatic tour of the South Caucasus. She will hold talks with Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev in Baku before proceeding to Armenia to meet Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan. This visit, her first to the region since Armenia and Azerbaijan signed their historic peace agreement, is expected to build upon the EU's strategic engagement with the South Caucasus, a region previously within Russia's sphere of influence.

In terms of defense, Ukraine and Sweden have finalized an agreement for the purchase of 16 Gripen E fighter jets, with delivery slated for early 2029, alongside equipment, maintenance, and support services. This follows previous agreements for the transfer of 16 Gripen C/D aircraft to Ukraine’s Air Force by early 2027. This positive development for Ukraine's air capabilities comes amidst a dispute with Poland, whose Defence Minister Władysław Kosiniak-Kamysz accused Kyiv of failing to uphold a promise to share drone technology in exchange for retired Polish MiG-29 jets.

Broader sentiment within the EU indicates public concern, with a Eurobarometer poll revealing that almost one-third (29%) of EU citizens anticipate a decline in their personal standard of living over the next five years, compared to just 18% who expect an improvement. This pessimism is sometimes linked to a negative perception of the European Union in certain countries. Meanwhile, legal complexities unfold in Hungary, where a lawyer for Ukrainians detained after a cash convoy raid suggests that former Prime Minister Viktor Orbán and other officials should have been held, implying prosecutors may be shielding Orbán from investigation. Elsewhere, outgoing UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer has outlined a long-term defense investment plan for Britain, earmarking £5 billion for drone development and emphasizing enhanced security for Europe, though the extent of the bloc's involvement remains unclear.