Bitcoin (BTC), the world's leading cryptocurrency, finds itself at a pivotal juncture, navigating critical resistance levels that could determine its immediate trajectory and influence the broader market cycle. The $95,000 level has emerged as an immediate hurdle that the flagship cryptocurrency must clear for bulls to prevent the reclaiming of the psychologically significant six-figure mark.

According to the widely followed crypto analyst Dave the Wave, Bitcoin is currently engaged in a recovery phase, which holds the key to the broader market's future direction. In an update shared on January 4, 2026, the analyst highlighted that the $100,000 level represents the definitive barrier that bulls must overcome to solidify their position. A successful breach of this milestone is seen as a signal for significant upward momentum.

Currently, Bitcoin is trading around $91,360, demonstrating a modest daily increase of approximately 0.85%. This recent price action suggests that a potential reversal could be on the horizon. However, it is important to note that Bitcoin has been undergoing a multi-month correction since reaching its peak near $127,000 on October 10, indicating a period of consolidation and re-evaluation in the market.

Several key technical developments are influencing the current market dynamics. Notably, Bitcoin appears to have breached a steep descending trendline, typically depicted as a dotted white line on charts, which had previously constrained its price action. This breakout could signal a waning of bearish momentum. Furthermore, the chart illustrates the formation of a "higher low" structure around the $80,000 mark, which could potentially establish a strong base for the current price impulse. Despite these positive technical indicators, the price remains below the long-term ascending logarithmic trendline, often shown in yellow, suggesting that the long-term bullish trend has not yet been fully re-established.

In terms of future price expectations, data from Polymarket indicates an 82% probability that Bitcoin will hit $100,000 within the current year. This high probability underscores market confidence in reaching the six-figure threshold. However, the market is not yet pricing in a runaway "supercycle" scenario, which would imply an exponential and sustained rally. The odds of BTC reaching $120,000 currently stand at a respectable 50%. The combination of technical improvements and cautiously optimistic market predictions positions Bitcoin at a crucial point as it attempts to break past key resistance levels and establish its next major market phase.