The 2025 WNBA Playoffs are set to commence on September 14, with the regular season concluding just days prior on September 11. The road to the WNBA Finals will culminate with the last possible date for the championship series being October 19. This year, the postseason format sees the top eight of the WNBA's 13 teams advancing, with seeding based on regular-season records. The First Round will maintain a best-of-three format, featuring a 1-1-1 structure where the higher seed hosts Games 1 and, if necessary, Game 3. The Semifinals will be a best-of-five series with a 2-2-1 structure, granting the higher seed home-court advantage for Games 1, 2, and 5. For the first time, the WNBA Finals will expand to a best-of-seven series, adopting a 2-2-1-1-1 structure, ensuring the higher seed hosts Games 1, 2, 5, and 7.

As of late August, several teams have already secured their berths in the intensely competitive 2025 WNBA Playoffs. The Minnesota Lynx, Las Vegas Aces, Atlanta Dream, and Phoenix Mercury have all officially clinched spots. In contrast, the Connecticut Sun, Dallas Wings, and Chicago Sky have been eliminated from playoff contention.

The **Atlanta Dream** secured their 11th trip to the postseason with a strong six-game winning streak from July 30 to August 15, which at times propelled them to the No. 2 spot in the standings. Despite opening the season as a bit of a mystery, new coach Karl Smesko, known for his pace-and-space offense, and the addition of free agents Brittney Griner and Brionna Jones, have forged one of the WNBA's most talented rosters and the league's top rebounding team. Key to their success is Allisha Gray, a former Olympic gold medalist and All-Star, who is having a career year with 18.7 PPG, three points higher than her 2024 average. The team is eagerly awaiting the return of point guard Jordin Canada, who has been out since August 10 with a hamstring injury.

The **Phoenix Mercury** made it to the playoffs through strategic offseason moves, bringing in perennial MVP contender Alyssa Thomas and All-Star Satou Sabally in a four-team trade. Alongside Kahleah Copper, this trio has propelled Phoenix back into contention and positioned them to potentially host first-round games. Each of Phoenix's 'big three' averages at least 15.8 points, with Sabally leading with 16.7 PPG. Thomas is a standout, averaging a team-high 9.0 rebounds and 9.2 assists, and has recorded seven triple-doubles this season, breaking her own single-season WNBA record set in 2023. She also made WNBA or NBA history by tallying at least 10 points, 15 rebounds, and 15 assists in a game, and 12 rebounds and 15 assists in consecutive games.

The **Las Vegas Aces** overcame a challenging start to the season, including a three-game losing streak in mid-June and a .500 record at the All-Star break. A pivotal moment was their record-setting 53-point home loss to Minnesota on August 2, which ignited an impressive 11-game winning streak, making them the second team to clinch a playoff bid. This resurgence positions them favorably to host first-round games. A'ja Wilson has been instrumental in this winning streak, scoring at least 30 points in five of the 11 victories, fueling the MVP race. On August 10, she became the first player in WNBA history to achieve a 30-point, 20-rebound game.

The **Minnesota Lynx**, behind MVP front-runner Napheesa Collier for much of the season, have held a commanding lead in the standings. They started the season with nine consecutive victories and won 17 of their first 19 games, becoming the first team to clinch a playoff spot on August 12. A testament to their consistency, the Lynx did not drop back-to-back games for the first three months of the regular season, a streak that only ended recently while Collier was sidelined with an ankle injury. Despite her absence for three weeks, Minnesota maintained a strong 5-2 record, demonstrating their depth and resilience.

Beyond the clinched teams, five franchises are fiercely competing for the remaining three playoff berths. These include the Seattle Storm, Golden State Valkyries, Indiana Fever, Los Angeles Sparks, and Washington Mystics, all within four games of each other.

The **Seattle Storm** (20-18) currently sit at No. 6, with a 95.1% chance to make the playoffs. Their season has been marked by inconsistencies, including a six-game losing streak in early August. However, they've recovered with four wins in their last five games, highlighted by Nneka Ogwumike's buzzer-beater against Washington. Dominique Malonga, a 19-year-old, has emerged as a pivotal player, showcasing a high ceiling with three 20-point performances and three double-doubles in August. The Storm have been notably better on the road (12-8) than at home (8-10).

The **Indiana Fever** (19-18) hold an 88.2% chance to advance, despite significant injury challenges, including Caitlin Clark being limited to 13 games and three other guards out for the season. While new additions Odyssey Sims, Shey Peddy, and Aerial Powers bring veteran experience, the Fever have won only two games since August 5, facing a tough remaining schedule. Caitlin Clark, who made the playoffs as a rookie in 2024, is a pivotal player, and her quick return and form will be crucial for the team's postseason aspirations after missing most of the year.

The **Golden State Valkyries** (19-18) have a 76.8% chance of making history, having already set a WNBA record for most wins by an expansion team in their inaugural season. They aim to become the first WNBA expansion franchise to reach the playoffs in its debut year, despite injuries, including the season-ending loss of All-Star Kayla Thornton. Veronica Burton has been a revelation, leading active players in scoring, assists, and steals, and is a strong candidate for WNBA Most Improved Player. Her stellar two-way play, especially offensive productivity, will be vital.

The **Los Angeles Sparks** (17-18) have a 39.3% chance, with the clear goal all year to make the playoffs after missing since 2020. They gained momentum around the All-Star break with eight wins in nine games but have since alternated wins and losses. With nine games remaining, including six in the final 11 days, their playoff hopes hinge on improved defense. Rickea Jackson has been a crucial player in their recent surge, averaging 17.3 PPG in the last 15 games, up from 12.1 PPG previously.

The **Washington Mystics** (16-22) face a slim 0.6% chance of making the playoffs. Despite being a pleasant surprise behind rookie All-Star tandem Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen, they've dropped in the standings, losing nine of their past 12 games. After trading Brittney Sykes, they are 3.5 games out of eighth place with just six games remaining. Pivotal players Citron, Iriafen, and Shakira Austin (who recently had a 30-point, 5-rebound, 4-block game) will need to fire on all cylinders for any late playoff push.

Looking at historical context, the **New York Liberty** defeated the Minnesota Lynx 3-2 in the 2024 WNBA Finals, claiming their first franchise title, with Jonquel Jones named Finals MVP. The **Houston Comets** remain the only franchise to win three straight WNBA championships (1997, 1998, 1999, and again in 2000). Only two No. 1 picks have won the WNBA championship in their first season: Tina Thompson (1997, Comets) and Maya Moore (2011, Lynx).

The 2025 WNBA season has been significantly affected by injuries, with 117 players missing a combined 868 games. Key players like Breanna Stewart, Caitlin Clark, Napheesa Collier, Jonquel Jones, Jordin Canada, and Rhyne Howard have all missed double-digit contests. The Elo-based forecast model highlights how the return of these stars could significantly boost their teams' title chances.

For the **Minnesota Lynx**, Napheesa Collier returned on August 24 from an ankle injury. The Lynx maintained a 7-3 record in games she missed, but her absence significantly impacted their scoring margin by about 4.5 points per game. With her back, the Lynx are expected to be as potent as ever, with their adjusted title chances rising from 58.8% to 68%.

The **Atlanta Dream** have been without Jordin Canada (hamstring, out since Aug. 13), while Rhyne Howard (knee) returned on August 10. Both players are worth nearly 2 points per game relative to a replacement-level player. If Canada returns to join Howard, the Dream's adjusted title chances could increase from 19.3% to 28%.

The **Las Vegas Aces** saw A'ja Wilson return on July 12 after missing four games due to a concussion and wrist sprain. Her absence cost the Aces nearly 20 points of total scoring margin, as she adds a league-high 5 Net Points per game. With Wilson, the Aces' adjusted title chances improve from 14.1% to 21%, underscoring the impact of MVP-level talent.

The **New York Liberty** had Breanna Stewart return on August 25 from a knee injury, and Jonquel Jones returned on July 22 from an ankle injury. Stewart's absence was the single-most costly statistical absence, accounting for 48.5 total Net Points in the 13 games she missed, leading to a Liberty slump and a drop in title chances from 33% to 2%. However, with both stars healthy, the Liberty are expected to improve significantly on their regular-season stats, potentially challenging for the crown.

The **Phoenix Mercury** welcomed back Alyssa Thomas (calf) and Natasha Mack (back) on June 11. Thomas, a perennial MVP candidate, had her five-game absence projected to cost Phoenix 15.8 points of total scoring margin. Mack's strong defensive contributions also significantly improve the team's defensive rating. With both healthy, the Mercury's adjusted title chances increase from 3.6% to 7%.

The **Indiana Fever** have been deeply impacted by Caitlin Clark's absence (groin, out since July 15), who has missed five times as many games as in her high school or college careers. The Fever are 7.5 Net Points better when she is on the court and hold an 8-5 record in games she played. Despite the advanced metrics potentially underselling her impact, her return, even with potential rust, could still provide a boost, though there are limits to how far she can carry the team after missing most of the season. The Fever's adjusted title chances are estimated at 2%, up from 1.6% without her projected impact.