Former US President Donald Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky convened for much-anticipated talks at Trump's Mar-a-Lago property in Florida, a meeting that lasted two-and-a-half hours. Both leaders expressed significant optimism following the discussions, with Trump describing it as a "terrific meeting" and Zelensky echoing this sentiment, calling it a "great meeting" with "great discussions on all the topics." Despite the positive rhetoric, this latest round of talks, like previous engagements this year, yielded little concrete evidence of tangible progress on the core issues needed to end the nearly four-year war in Ukraine.

A central and persistently "thorny issue" remains the question of territorial concessions, a key demand from Russia and a point that reportedly has US backing. While Zelensky has not publicly accepted territorial cessions, which is viewed as a positive for Ukraine, he did suggest that a referendum might be held to approve any deals related to ending the conflict, thereby leaving the possibility open. Trump highlighted that the status of the Donbas region in eastern Ukraine, which Russia largely controls, as a demilitarized zone remains "unresolved." Moscow currently controls approximately 20% of Ukrainian territory, including about 75% of the Donetsk region and 99% of the neighboring Luhansk, collectively known as Donbas. Russia insists Ukraine withdraw from the small portion of Donbas it still holds, while Kyiv proposes the area become a free economic zone policed by Ukrainian forces. Trump acknowledged the complexity, calling it "a very tough issue" that will eventually "get resolved," despite having previously shifted his own stance on Ukraine's lost territories.

Another crucial area lacking clarity is that of security guarantees for Ukraine. Zelensky claimed these were "100%" agreed upon with the US, though specific details remain undisclosed. Trump, for his part, stated that security guarantees were "close to 95%" done, but notably did not formally commit to logistical support or the deployment of troops to protect Ukraine from future aggression. The absence of specific commitments raises questions about the efficacy and deterrent power of these guarantees.

The role and stance of Russia further complicate the peace prospects. Russia has already rejected key ideas floated before the Florida talks, such as declaring a ceasefire and deploying a multinational force to monitor it in Ukraine. Donald Trump's consistently positive rhetoric about Russian President Vladimir Putin, whom he described as "serious" about peace and wanting "Ukraine to succeed," suggests that pressure on Russia may not be forthcoming from the US side. A phone call between Trump and Putin prior to the Mar-a-Lago meeting, initiated by Trump, reportedly involved discussions on EU and Ukraine peace proposals. Russian foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov noted that both presidents concluded that a temporary ceasefire, as proposed by the EU and Ukraine, would only serve to prolong the conflict.

Looking ahead, diplomatic efforts are expected to continue. Zelensky stated that US and Ukrainian teams would meet in the coming week for further discussions aimed at ending the war. Trump floated the idea of trilateral talks involving the US, Russia, and Ukraine "at the right time." Zelensky also suggested a potential meeting of Ukrainian officials at the White House in January, possibly alongside European leaders. European allies have reacted positively to the talks, with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen hailing "good progress" and emphasizing the need for "ironclad security guarantees." French President Emmanuel Macron announced a meeting of the "Coalition of the Willing" in Paris in early January to finalize concrete contributions towards these security guarantees. Despite these ongoing diplomatic movements and the expressed optimism from both Trump and Zelensky, the significant "thorny issues" that persist provide little indication that a lasting peace will prevail in Ukraine in the near future, underscoring the formidable challenges ahead.