Donald Trump has announced a significant deal involving Venezuelan crude oil, stating that Venezuela will be "turning over" between 30 and 50 million barrels, potentially worth up to $2 billion, to the United States. This flagship negotiation is designed to redirect oil supplies that were previously bound for China and to assist Venezuela in avoiding deeper cuts to its oil production. Trump declared that this oil would be sold at its market price, with the proceeds controlled by him as President of the United States to ensure benefits for both the Venezuelan and American people. This agreement follows a recent US military operation that culminated in the capture of Venezuelan leader Nicolás Maduro over the weekend, an event Venezuelan officials have labeled a "kidnapping" and an attempt by the US to seize the nation's vast oil reserves.

The deal indicates a strong response to Trump's demand that Venezuela open its oil industry to US companies, or face further military intervention. Trump explicitly stated his desire for interim president Delcy Rodríguez to grant the US and private companies "total access" to Venezuela’s oil sector. US Energy Secretary Chris Wright has been tasked with executing the plan, which involves transporting the crude directly from storage ships to unloading docks in the United States. Initially, this supply to the US may necessitate reallocating cargoes originally destined for China, which has been Venezuela's primary oil purchaser, especially since US sanctions were imposed on companies trading oil with Venezuela in 2020. Following Trump’s announcement, US crude prices experienced a more than 1.5% decline, anticipating an increased volume of Venezuelan oil exports to the US. Currently, Chevron, PDVSA’s main joint venture partner, is the sole company authorized by the US to export Venezuelan oil, shipping between 100,000 and 150,000 barrels per day to the US without interruption. Given that PDVSA is excluded from the global financial system and its bank accounts are frozen, it remains unclear whether Venezuela will have direct access to the proceeds from these oil sales.

Venezuelan political reactions to these events have been mixed and evolving. Acting President Delcy Rodríguez, who served as Maduro’s vice-president since 2018 and previously as his Minister of Petroleum and Hydrocarbons, initially offered a conciliatory tone, inviting the US government to cooperate. However, just hours before Trump's oil announcement, Rodríguez hardened her stance in a televised address, firmly stating that "no external agent governs Venezuela," directly refuting Trump's assertion that the US would now control the country post-Maduro's capture. She condemned the military operation, the first large-scale US military action on South American soil, as a "terrible military aggression" and a "criminal attack" resulting in the "absolutely illegal" "kidnapping" of Maduro and his wife. Rodríguez reiterated Venezuela's sovereignty, declaring, "The government of Venezuela rules in our country – no one else."

Public opinion in the United States regarding the motivation behind the military action in Venezuela has been surveyed. A Daily Mail poll revealed that 39 percent of registered voters believe President Trump's primary motivation was to gain access to Venezuela's vast oil reserves. This view was significantly more prevalent among Democrats (59 percent) compared to Republicans (17 percent) and independents (38 percent). Conversely, 30 percent of voters (with 48 percent of Republicans) believed the action aimed to stop the flow of illicit drugs, while 17 percent thought it was to remove an illegitimate leader, referring to Nicolás Maduro. When asked about the acceptability of military action motivated by oil, 52 percent of Americans were not comfortable with it. However, this varied sharply by party, with 52 percent of Republicans finding it acceptable, compared to only 16 percent of Democrats and 20 percent of independents. Regarding the future, Democrats and independents primarily favored the opposition, which won the 2024 elections, taking over, while Republicans largely preferred the US to run the country until new elections. Across all political affiliations, there was a general preference for the current Venezuelan government to continue ruling over a long-term US occupation.

Venezuela possesses immense oil wealth, holding 303 billion barrels of proven oil, nearly a fifth of the global total, primarily heavy, sour crude in the Orinoco Belt. Despite this, years of mismanagement, corruption, and US sanctions have severely hampered production, slashing it from 3.5 million to 1.1 million barrels per day, now less than 1 percent of global supply. The Trump administration has clearly positioned oil at the core of Washington's Venezuela strategy following Maduro's arrest. Chevron is expected to gain initial access to these reserves, with ExxonMobil and ConocoPhillips promised future contracts. Rebuilding the country's dilapidated energy infrastructure is projected to cost billions of dollars and take several years, with Trump suggesting an 18-month timeline before new elections could be held. He also indicated that American taxpayers might bear some of the costs, potentially reimbursing oil companies for their investments. Trump expressed confidence that his "MAGA" base would support this initiative, stating, "MAGA loves what I'm doing."

The potential economic impact for American households is substantial, according to veteran oil expert Tony Franjie. He forecasts that increased Venezuelan crude supply could drive crude prices below $40 a barrel and gasoline prices to around $2.50 a gallon, down from $2.80, benefiting consumers through lower transportation costs and airfares. Franjie highlighted America’s advantage, noting that US Gulf Coast refineries were specifically designed for processing heavy Venezuelan crude and are uniquely equipped to handle it efficiently. These facilities could quickly pivot back from Canadian crude and shale if profit margins are favorable. However, analysts universally agree that a full revival of Venezuela's oil industry will demand billions of dollars and years of dedicated work, citing rusting pipelines, degraded facilities, and a significant exodus of skilled workers. Furthermore, considerable political risks persist, with Maduro loyalists contesting US authority, international lawyers questioning the legality of Washington's intervention, and leaders in Mexico, Colombia, and Brazil branding the action as destabilizing.

Internationally, China and Russia, both holding deep strategic interests in Venezuelan oil, are closely monitoring developments. Any redirection of Venezuelan oil exports from Beijing to the US Gulf Coast would significantly reshape global energy flows. The White House is organizing an Oval Office meeting with executives from major oil companies, including Exxon, Chevron, and ConocoPhillips, to discuss Venezuela's oil prospects. Although Trump had previously announced an "oil embargo" on Venezuela, he also indicated that under an incoming transition government, Venezuela’s largest customers, including China, would continue to receive oil, suggesting a complex and perhaps evolving strategy for managing global energy interests amidst the ongoing political shifts.