Kenya has secured a preliminary trade agreement with China, granting 98.2 percent of its goods duty-free access to the vast Chinese market. This landmark deal strengthens economic ties between the East African nation and the global economic powerhouse. The arrangement follows bilateral discussions between President William Ruto and President Xi Jinping, particularly during Ruto's state visit to Beijing in 2025, which also saw several financing and cooperation agreements signed.

The arrangement, technically an “Early Harvest Agreement,” enables immediate duty-free access for Kenyan exports while negotiations for a comprehensive agreement continue. According to Kenya’s Ministry of Trade, this initial accord paves the way for African nations like Kenya to benefit from a transitional period before fully reciprocal trade arrangements take effect. Analysts, including Hannah Ryder of Development Reimagined, note that this aligns with China’s broader policy to eliminate tariffs for 53 African states, while remaining WTO-compliant.

A primary driver for Kenya’s move is its trade deficit with China, which reached 549.82 billion shillings ($4.27 billion) in 2024. Exports totaled just 26.32 billion shillings compared to imports of 576.14 billion shillings. The zero-duty access is expected to significantly boost Kenyan exports, particularly agricultural produce, potentially reducing the longstanding imbalance that previous initiatives, like avocado export deals in 2022, failed to address.

While deepening ties with China, Kenya continues to cultivate its relationship with Western partners, especially the United States. Kenyan officials have emphasized that the China deal does not conflict with ongoing negotiations for AGOA re-authorization or a separate bilateral trade agreement with the U.S. President Ruto underscored the strategic importance of expanding access to China’s massive market as a means to close the trade gap.

China’s influence in Kenya extends beyond trade. Beijing is Nairobi’s largest bilateral creditor, and both nations recently agreed to convert the base currency of some loans from U.S. dollars to Chinese yuan, lowering Kenya’s interest costs and deepening the broader financial partnership. This multi-layered relationship highlights China’s comprehensive role in Kenya’s economic development strategy.